《货币银行学》课程教学资源（文献资料）11.Fed主席贝南克——全球储蓄依然过剩

Fed's Bernanke:Global Saving Glut RemainsInPlace--Fed主席贝南克：全球储蓄依然过剩2007年09月12日WASHINGTON --In a closely anticipated speech Tuesday, Federal Reserve ChairmanBenBernankestoppedshortof signalinghisviewsontheeconomyandinterestrates,leaving Wall Street in the rare position of considering multiple interest-rate scenariosjust one week ahead of a Fed policy meeting.Bernanke's prepared remarks to a German central bank conference, which werelargely academic, stayed on the topic of global current account imbalances. Herepeated his longstanding assertion that elements of the "global saving glut remain inplace."华盛顿--美国联邦储备委员会(FederalReserve，简称Fed)主席本?贝南克(BenBernanke)周二在备受期待的讲话中并没有对经济和利率发表观点，这使得华尔街在距离Fed政策会议召开仅一周的时间里不得不考虑多种利率决定的可能。贝南克在德国央行会议上发表的事先准备好的演讲所涉及的主题是全球经常项目失衡。演讲内容多为学术性。贝南克重申了其一贯观点：全球储蓄依然过剩。But it's what Bernanke left out - namely, any mention of current economic ormonetary policy issues - that will likely disappoint investors.但贝南克没有提及当前经济或货币政策的问题，投资者可能将因此失望。The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower the federal fundsrate, the rate at which banks lend to each other, for the first time in over four years inorderto limit theeffectof a housinga credit squeeze on the overall economy市场普遍预计美国联邦公开市场委员会(TheFederal OpenMarketCommittee，简称FOMC)将在4年多来首次下调联邦基金利率，以便缓解住房和信贷问题对整体经济的影响。Yet recent economic data, as well as remarks Monday by several Fed officials, haveleft open the question of whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points or, thoughit's highly unlikely, leave rates unchanged不过，近期的经济数据和多名Fed官员周一的讲话仍使得利率前景具有不确定性，Fed到底是减息25个基点还是50个基点抑或是维持利率不变依旧悬而未决，不过，维持利率不变的可能性甚微。CommentsMondaybySanFranciscoFedPresidentJanetYellenandFedGovernorFredericMishkin seemed to make the case for a half-point reduction, Fed watchers said. In contrast,remarks by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisherseemedtoleantoward25basispoints,analystssaid

Fed's Bernanke: Global Saving Glut Remains In Place - -Fed 主席贝南克：全球储蓄依然过剩 2007 年 09 月 12 日 WASHINGTON -In a closely anticipated speech Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling his views on the economy and interest rates, leaving Wall Street in the rare position of considering multiple interest-rate scenarios just one week ahead of a Fed policy meeting. Bernanke's prepared remarks to a German central bank conference, which were largely academic, stayed on the topic of global current account imbalances. He repeated his longstanding assertion that elements of the "global saving glut remain in place." 华盛顿-美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称 Fed)主席本?贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周二在备受期待的讲话中并没有对经济和利率发表观点，这使得华尔 街在距离 Fed 政策会议召开仅一周的时间里不得不考虑多种利率决定的可能。 贝南克在德国央行会议上发表的事先准备好的演讲所涉及的主题是全球经常项 目失衡。演讲内容多为学术性。贝南克重申了其一贯观点：全球储蓄依然过剩。 But it's what Bernanke left out - namely, any mention of current economic or monetary policy issues - that will likely disappoint investors. 但贝南克没有提及当前经济或货币政策的问题，投资者可能将因此失望。 The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other, for the first time in over four years in order to limit the effect of a housing a credit squeeze on the overall economy. 市场普遍预计美国联邦公开市场委员会(The Federal Open Market Committee, 简称 FOMC) 将在 4 年多来首次下调联邦基金利率，以便缓解住房和信贷问题对整体经济的影响。 Yet recent economic data, as well as remarks Monday by several Fed officials, have left open the question of whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points or, though it's highly unlikely, leave rates unchanged. 不过，近期的经济数据和多名 Fed 官员周一的讲话仍使得利率前景具有不确定性，Fed 到底 是减息 25 个基点还是 50 个基点抑或是维持利率不变依旧悬而未决，不过，维持利率不变 的可能性甚微。 Comments Monday by San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen and Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin seemed to make the case for a half-point reduction, Fed watchers said. In contrast, remarks by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher seemed to lean toward 25 basis points, analysts said

因此华尔街期待从贝南克讲话中寻找利率前景的突破口，但贝南克并未作出任何评论。贝南克是在9月18日FOMC会议召开之前最后一位发表讲话的Fed官员，这意味著投资者此次将面临利率前景的前所未有的不确定性。Wall Street was thuslookingtoBernanke to breakthetie,which he didn'tdoBernanke's speech is the last scheduled by a Fed official before the Sept. 18 FOMCmeeting, meaning investors are likely to confront that meeting with much moreuncertainty than they're used to having全球储蓄规模过剩的根源在于产油国和新兴市场经济体的储蓄率较高，这部分地区的资金流向了美国等低储蓄率的工业化国家。In his prepared remarks, Bernanke said, "my reading of recent developments is thatalthough some of the details have changed, the fundamental elements of the globalsaving glut remain in place."The roots of the global saving glut lie in high rates of saving in oil-producing andemerging-market economies, which have flowed to industrialized countries withlowerratesofdomesticsaving,liketheU.S.贝南克指出，过去数年的经济增长（尤其是工业国）显然已足以提升储蓄的净需求，并进而促使全球实际利率略有上升。Meanwhile, 'economic growth over the past few years, especially in industrialcountries,hasapparentlybeen sufficientto increasethenetdemandfor savingandthus to raise global real interest rates somewhat, Bernanke said他表示，虽然当前巨大的经常项目赤字规模并未对美国经济造成过重的负担，但目前这种情形肯定难以为继。He said that while the large U.S.current account isn't an'exceptionally largeburdenon the economy right now, it 'is certainly not sustainable at its current level'He said the U.S. needs to boost domestic savings, especially in light of thedemographictransitionastensofmillions ofBabyBoomersenterretirement.他认为，美国需要增加储蓄，尤其是考虑到在”婴儿潮中出生的数以千万计的民众步入退休年龄、美国人口结构发生转型的情况下更需要提高储蓄率。Meanwhile, emerging-market economies like China should shift resources away fromtheexport sector andtoward domesticconsumption intheirowneconomies,he said'The developing world should be the recipient, not the provider, of financial capital,'Bernankesaid贝南克表示，而中国等新兴市场经济体应将资源从出口行业转向内部消费

因此华尔街期待从贝南克讲话中寻找利率前景的突破口，但贝南克并未作出任何评论。贝南 克是在 9 月 18 日 FOMC 会议召开之前最后一位发表讲话的 Fed 官员，这意味著投资者此次 将面临利率前景的前所未有的不确定性。 Wall Street was thus looking to Bernanke to break the tie, which he didn't do. Bernanke's speech is the last scheduled by a Fed official before the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting, meaning investors are likely to confront that meeting with much more uncertainty than they're used to having. 全球储蓄规模过剩的根源在于产油国和新兴市场经济体的储蓄率较高，这部分地 区的资金流向了美国等低储蓄率的工业化国家。 In his prepared remarks, Bernanke said, "my reading of recent developments is that although some of the details have changed, the fundamental elements of the global saving glut remain in place." The roots of the global saving glut lie in high rates of saving in oil-producing and emerging-market economies, which have flowed to industrialized countries with lower rates of domestic saving, like the U.S. 贝南克指出，过去数年的经济增长（尤其是工业国）显然已足以提升储蓄的净需求，并进而 促使全球实际利率略有上升。 Meanwhile, 'economic growth over the past few years, especially in industrial countries, has apparently been sufficient to increase the net demand for saving and thus to raise global real interest rates somewhat,' Bernanke said. 他表示，虽然当前巨大的经常项目赤字规模并未对美国经济造成过重的负担，但目前这种情 形肯定难以为继。 He said that while the large U.S. current account isn't an 'exceptionally large burden' on the economy right now, it 'is certainly not sustainable at its current level.' He said the U.S. needs to boost domestic savings, especially in light of the demographic transition as tens of millions of Baby Boomers enter retirement. 他认为，美国需要增加储蓄，尤其是考虑到在“婴儿潮”中出生的数以千万计的民众步入退休 年龄、美国人口结构发生转型的情况下更需要提高储蓄率。 Meanwhile, emerging-market economies like China should shift resources away from the export sector and toward domestic consumption in their own economies, he said. 'The developing world should be the recipient, not the provider, of financial capital,' Bernanke said. 贝南克表示，而中国等新兴市场经济体应将资源从出口行业转向内部消费

他认为，发展中国家应是金融资本的接收方，而非提供方

他认为，发展中国家应是金融资本的接收方，而非提供方