《货币银行学》课程教学资源（文献资料）6.通胀

通货膨胀可能导致利率上涨InflationCouldLeadtoRate一央行行长HikeCentralBankChiefInterestratescouldberaisedif央行行长说，如果通货膨胀压力inflation pressure keeps building,the持续，利率可能上涨。central bank governor has saidIfthe consumer price index (CPI), a如果一个关键的衡量通货膨胀key gauge of inflation, continues to rise,指标一消费者价格指数CPI，持续上"we don't excludethe possibility of升，“我们不排除利率有再次上涨raising interest rates again," Zhou Xiao的可能性”，周小川星期六在瑞士chuan said on Saturday in Basel巴塞尔代表央行出席国际清算银行Switzerland, where he was attending a会议时说。meeting of central bankers at the Bankof International Settlements.The People's Bank of China raised今年，中国人民银行两次提高rates twice this year, with the latest on利率，最近一次是在5月19日，基May 19 when the benchmark one-year准1年期存款利率提高了27个基deposit rate was raised 27 basis points to点，提高至3.06个百分点.3.06percent.The same month, theCPI rose the在同一个月里，由于猪肉和粮highest in more than two years - 3.4食价格上涨，CPI上升到两年多来的percent year on year - as pork and food最高点一比去年同期上升3.4个百prices soared. It was the third month this分点。这是今年以来第三个月CP1year that the CPI exceeded or nudged超过今年中央银行设定线3个百分the 3 percent mark set by the central点。bank forthisyear.北京大学中国经济研究中心资Song Guoqing, a senior economist深经济学家宋国青说，由于粮食价withtheChinaCenterforEconomic格的快速上涨，6月份可能CPI上升Research at Peking University, said the高达4%。JuneCPI could rise ashigh as 4percentduetorapid rises infoodprices许多经济学家说CPI还会保持Many economists said the CPI will继续上升趋势直到9、10月。continue on an upward trend untilSeptemberor October.Zhang Yongjun, an economist with国家信息中心经济学家张永军the StateInformationCenter,said:"We说：“我们预计CPI会在10月份左forecast the CPI will peak at 4 percent右达到4%的高峰后开始下降。”around October before it starts todecline

Inflation Could Lead to Rate Hike —Central Bank Chief Interest rates could be raised if inflation pressure keeps building, the central bank governor has said. If the consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, continues to rise, "we don't exclude the possibility of raising interest rates again," Zhou Xiao chuan said on Saturday in Basel, Switzerland, where he was attending a meeting of central bankers at the Bank of International Settlements. The People's Bank of China raised rates twice this year, with the latest on May 19 when the benchmark one-year deposit rate was raised 27 basis points to 3.06 percent. The same month, the CPI rose the highest in more than two years - 3.4 percent year on year - as pork and food prices soared. It was the third month this year that the CPI exceeded or nudged the 3 percent mark set by the central bank for this year. Song Guoqing, a senior economist with the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, said the June CPI could rise as high as 4 percent due to rapid rises in food prices. Many economists said the CPI will continue on an upward trend until September or October. Zhang Yongjun, an economist with the State Information Center, said: "We forecast the CPI will peak at 4 percent around October before it starts to decline." 通货膨胀可能导致利率上涨 —央行行长 央行行长说，如果通货膨胀压力 持续,利率可能上涨。 如果一个关键的衡量通货膨胀 指标—消费者价格指数 CPI,持续上 升，“我们不排除利率有再次上涨 的可能性”，周小川星期六在瑞士 巴塞尔代表央行出席国际清算银行 会议时说。 今年，中国人民银行两次提高 利率，最近一次是在 5 月 19 日，基 准 1 年期存款利率提高了 27 个基 点，提高至 3.06 个百分点. 在同一个月里，由于猪肉和粮 食价格上涨，CPI 上升到两年多来的 最高点—比去年同期上升 3.4 个百 分点。这是今年以来第三个月 CPI 超过今年中央银行设定线 3 个百分 点。 北京大学中国经济研究中心资 深经济学家宋国青说，由于粮食价 格的快速上涨，6 月份可能 CPI 上升 高达 4%。 许多经济学家说 CPI 还会保持 继续上升趋势直到 9、10 月。 国家信息中心经济学家张永军 说：“我们预计 CPI 会在 10 月份左 右达到 4%的高峰后开始下降

中国银行经济师董得志说：“我Dong Dezhi, economist with the们还没有看到6月份CPI增长趋势Bank ofChina, said:"We have not seen放缓的迹象。极有可能的是CPI会signs of slow-down in CPI growth in在5月份3.4%的基础上继续增长。”June. It is more than possible that it willcontinueto riseon theback of the3.4percent level in May."Apart from steeprises in pork and egg董观察说，除了急剧上涨的猪prices,prices of aquatic products and肉和鸡蛋价格，6月份水产品和水果fruits have rebounded in June, adding to价格已见回升，这增加了通货膨胀inflation pressure, Dong observed. Food的压力。食物占约三分之一的篮子。accounts for about a third of the CPIbasketWhile many worry that rising虽然有很多人担心通胀率上升inflation would be inevitable, Zhuang将是不可避免的，亚洲开发银行高Jian,asenioreconomistwiththeAsian级经济师庄健说，在有1990年代的Development Bank, said the authorities经验后当局有足够的手段和方法来are well equipped to control inflation控制通货膨胀。following the experience in the 1990s.The high CPI rates forecast in the他指出，对未来几个月高消费comingmonthspresumethattherewill者价格指数增长率的预测假定不会be no government intervention, he有政府干预。noted.2007-06-25Source: China Daily

Dong Dezhi, economist with the Bank of China, said: "We have not seen signs of slow-down in CPI growth in June. It is more than possible that it will continue to rise on the back of the 3.4 percent level in May." Apart from steep rises in pork and egg prices, prices of aquatic products and fruits have rebounded in June, adding to inflation pressure, Dong observed. Food accounts for about a third of the CPI basket. While many worry that rising inflation would be inevitable, Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank, said the authorities are well equipped to control inflation following the experience in the 1990s. The high CPI rates forecast in the coming months presume that there will be no government intervention, he noted. Source: China Daily 2007-06-25 中国银行经济师董得志说：“我 们还没有看到 6 月份 CPI 增长趋势 放缓的迹象。极有可能的是 CPI 会 在 5 月份 3.4%的基础上继续增长。” 董观察说，除了急剧上涨的猪 肉和鸡蛋价格，6 月份水产品和水果 价格已见回升，这增加了通货膨胀 的压力。食物占约三分之一的篮子。 虽然有很多人担心通胀率上升 将是不可避免的, 亚洲开发银行高 级经济师庄健说，在有 1990 年代的 经验后当局有足够的手段和方法来 控制通货膨胀。 他指出，对未来几个月高消费 者价格指数增长率的预测假定不会 有政府干预