同济大学：《应用统计学》课程电子教案（课件讲稿）Chapter 1 Introduction and Data Collection（Applied Statistics）

>Big Data:The Management Revolution “You can't manage what you don't measure.” Source:Harvard Business Review,Oct.2012. >Big Data:The next frontier for innovation,competition,and productivity Source:McKinsey Global Institute,May.2011 Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap1-3

Big Data: The Management Big Data: The Management Revolution “You can You can’t manage what you don t manage what you don’t measure t measure.” Source：Harvard Business Review, Oct.2012. Big Data: The next frontier for innovation competition and innovation, competition, and productivity Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-3 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, May.2011

Discussion question: Why Collect Data and How? Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap1-4

Discussion question: Why Collect Data and How? Why Collect Data and How? Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-4

>Make a bet Me:there are at least two of you has the same birthday (same day,not considering year). You:? Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-5

Make a bet Me: there are at least two of you has Me: there are at least two of you has the same birthday (same day, not considering year) considering year). You: ?? Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-5

Explanation >Probability:mutually exclusive P(A)=1-P(A) >Independent event:the probability of all of the events occurring is equal to a product of the probabilities of each of the events occurring P团.=lx0-3G5xl-6xXl-36 365×364×.×(365-n+1) 365” 365 3651 n 365"(365-n)！ 365m Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-6

Explanation  Probability: mutually exclusive  Id d t t th b bilit f ll f th PA PA () 1 ()    Independent event: the probability of all of the events occurring is equal to a product of the prob biliti f h f th t i babilities of each of the events occurring 12 1 ( ) 1 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 365 365 365 n n P A          365 365 365 365 364 (365 1) = 365n      n 365 ! 365! = ( ) n n n n        Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-6 365 (365 )! 365 n n  n

>99%probability is reached with just 57 people,and 50%probability with 23 people These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (except February 29)is equally probable for a birthday >Real-life birthday distributions are not uniform since not all dates are equally likely Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-7

 99% probability is reached with just 57 people, and 50% probability with 23 people.  These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (except assumption that each day of the year (except February 29) is equally probable for a birthday  R l ea -lif bi thd di t ib ti t life birthday distributions are not uniform since not all dates are equally likely Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-7

1 米】 0.6 4 0.3 2 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 5060 70 80 90 100 number of people

1 0.9 ay 0.7 0.8 ples birthda 0.5 0.6 t two peop 0 3 0.4 y of at leas 0.2 0.3 probability 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 number of people

>3 Credits 18 weeks >Assessment Breakdown Components Percentage of final grade Class participation 10% Group work 30%(three case studies) Individual work 20% Final exam 40% Others(Please specify) Some bonus questions:5%per each.Each student can get one bonus at most. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-10

 3 Credits 18 weeks  Assessment Breakdown Assessment Breakdown Components Percentage of final grade Class participation 10% Gro p ork Group work 30% (three case st dies) 30% (three case studies) Individual work 20% Final exam 40% Others (Please specify) Some bonus questions: 5% per each. Each student can get one bonus at most. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-10

Course Outline >Chapter 1:Introduction and Data Collection Chapter 2:Presenting Data in Tables and Charts >Chapter 3:Numerical Descriptive Measures Chapter 4:Basic Probability and Discrete Probability Distribution >Chapter 5:The Normal Distribution and Sampling Distributions Chapter 6:Confidence Interval Estimation > Chapter 7:Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing:One-Sample Tests >Chapter 8:Two-Sample Tests with Numerical Data >Chapter 9:Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) >Chapter 10:Tests for Two or More Samples with Categorical Data >For further study(not in our course) Chapter 11:Simple Linear Regression Chapter 12:Multiple Regression ■ Chapter 13:Time-Series Analysis ■ Chapter 14:Decision Making Chapter 15:Statistical Applications in Quality and Productivity Management Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-11

Course Outline  Chapter 1: Introduction and Data Collection  Chapter 2: Presenting Data in Tables and Charts  Chapter 3: Chapter 3: Numerical Descriptive Measures Numerical Descriptive Measures  Chapter 4: Basic Probability and Discrete Probability Distribution  Chapter 5: The Normal Distribution and Sampling Distributions  Chapter 6: Chapter 6: Confidence Interval Estimation Confidence Interval Estimation  Chapter 7: Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing: One-Sample Tests  Chapter 8: Two-Sample Tests with Numerical Data  Ch t 9 ap ter 9: A l i f V i (ANOVA) Analysis o f Variance (ANOVA)  Chapter 10: Tests for Two or More Samples with Categorical Data  For further study (not in our course)  Chapter 11: Simple Linear Regression  Chapter 12: Multiple Regression  Chapter 13: Time-Series Analysis  Chapter 14: Decision Making  Chapter 15: Statistical Applications in Quality and Productivity Management Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-11

Learning Objectives In this chapter, you will learn: . Why statistics is important . How statistics is used in business . The sources of data used in business The types of data used in business The key terms The basics of Microsoft Excel Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-12

Learning Objectives In this chapter, you will learn:  Why statistics is important  How statistics is used in business  Th e sou ces o data used bus ess sou rces of data used in business  The types of data used in business  Th k t e key terms  The basics of Microsoft Excel Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-12

What is Statistics >Statistics:the science of collecting,analyzing, presenting,and interpreting data. Copyright 1994-2000 Encyclopaedia Britannica,Inc. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-13

What is Statistics  Statistics: the science of collecting, analyzing, presenti di i ng, an d interpret ing data . Copyright 1994-2000 Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 1-13