同济大学：《应用统计学》课程电子教案（课件讲稿）Chapter 4 Basic Probability（主讲：王世进）

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chapter 4 Basic Probability Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 3-1

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 3-1 Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chapter 4 Basic Probability

"A Stats Professor Plans To Travel To A Conference By Plane"joke >A stats professor plans to travel to a conference by plane.When he passes the security check,they discover a bomb in his carry-on-baggage.Of course, he is hauled off immediately for interrogation. "I don't understand it!"the interrogating officer exclaims."You're an accomplished professional,a caring family man,a pillar of your parish -and now you want to destroy that all by blowing up an airplane!" source:http://www.jokebuddha.com/joke/A Stats Professor Plans#ixzz27k6nOMI4 Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-2 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-2 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management "A Stats Professor Plans To Travel To A Conference By Plane" joke  A stats professor plans to travel to a conference by plane. When he passes the security check, they discover a bomb in his carry-on-baggage. Of course, he is hauled off immediately for interrogation. "I don't understand it!" the interrogating officer exclaims. "You're an accomplished professional, a caring family man, a pillar of your parish - and now you want to destroy that all by blowing up an airplane!" source:http://www.jokebuddha.com/joke/A_Stats_Professor_Plans#ixzz27k6nOMI4

"A Stats Professor Plans To Travel To A Conference By Plane"joke (continued) >"Sorry",the professor interrupts him."I had never intended to blow up the plane. >"So,for what reason else did you try to bring a bomb on board?!" >"Let me explain.Statistics shows that the probability of a bomb being on an airplane is 1/1000.That's quite high if you think about it-so high that I wouldn't have any peace of mind on a flight. "And what does this have to do with you bringing a bomb on board of a plane?" "You see,since the probability of one bomb being on my plane is 1/1000,the chance that there are two bombs is 1/1000000.If I already bring one,the chance of another bomb being around is actually 1/1000000,and I am much safer..." source: http://www.jokebuddha.com/joke/A Stats Professor Plans#ixzz27 kQS8qFR Statistics for Mar agers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-3 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-3 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management "A Stats Professor Plans To Travel To A Conference By Plane" joke (continued)  "Sorry", the professor interrupts him. "I had never intended to blow up the plane."  “So, for what reason else did you try to bring a bomb on board?!“  "Let me explain. Statistics shows that the probability of a bomb being on an airplane is 1/1000. That's quite high if you think about it - so high that I wouldn't have any peace of mind on a flight.“  "And what does this have to do with you bringing a bomb on board of a plane?"  “You see, since the probability of one bomb being on my plane is 1/1000, the chance that there are two bombs is 1/1000000. If I already bring one, the chance of another bomb being around is actually 1/1000000, and I am much safer..." source: http://www.jokebuddha.com/joke/A_Stats_Professor_Plans#ixzz27 kQS8qFR

Chapter Topics Basic probability concepts Sample spaces and events,simple probability,joint probability Conditional probability Statistical independence,marginal probability >Bayes's Theorem Statistics for Ma nagers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-4 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-4 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Chapter Topics  Basic probability concepts  Sample spaces and events, simple probability, joint probability  Conditional probability  Statistical independence, marginal probability  Bayes’s Theorem

Important Terms >Probability:the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1) >Event:Each possible type of occurrence or outcome (Impossible Event,Certain Event) >Simple Event:an event that can be described by a single characteristic >Sample Space:the collection of all possible events Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-5 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-5 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Important Terms  Probability: the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1)  Event: Each possible type of occurrence or outcome (Impossible Event, Certain Event)  Simple Event: an event that can be described by a single characteristic  Sample Space: the collection of all possible events

Sample Spaces >Collection of all possible outcomes e.g.:All six faces of a die: 因因 e.g.:All 52 cards in a deck: Statistics for Ma nagers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-6 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-6 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Sample Spaces  Collection of all possible outcomes  e.g.: All six faces of a die:  e.g.: All 52 cards in a deck:

Events >Simple event Outcome from a sample space with one characteristic e.g.:A red card from a deck of cards >Joint event Involves two outcomes simultaneously e.g.:An ace that is also red from a deck of cards Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-7 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-7 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Events  Simple event  Outcome from a sample space with one characteristic  e.g.: A red card from a deck of cards  Joint event  Involves two outcomes simultaneously  e.g.: An ace that is also red from a deck of cards

Visualizing Events >Contingency Tables Ace Not Ace Total Black 2 24 26 Red 2 24 26 Total 4 48 52 >Tree Diagrams Ace Red Full Cards Not an Ace Deck Black Ace of Cards Cards Not an Ace Statistics for Ma agers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-8 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-8 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Visualizing Events  Contingency Tables  Tree Diagrams Red 2 24 26 Black 2 24 26 Total 4 48 52 Ace Not Ace Total Full Deck of Cards Red Cards Black Cards Not an Ace Ace Ace Not an Ace

Special Events Null Event >Impossible event e.g.:Club diamond on one card draw >Complement of event For event A,all events not in A Denoted as A' e.g.:A:queen of diamonds A':all cards in a deck that are not queen of diamonds Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap4-9 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-9 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Special Events  Impossible event e.g.: Club & diamond on one card draw  Complement of event  For event A, all events not in A  Denoted as A’  e.g.: A: queen of diamonds A’: all cards in a deck that are not queen of diamonds  Null Event A' A

Special Events (continued) >Mutually exclusive events Two events cannot occur together e.g.:--A:queen of diamonds;B:queen of clubs -Events a and B are mutually exclusive >Collectively exhaustive events One of the events must occur The set of events covers the whole sample space e.g.:--A:all the aces;B:all the black cards;C:all the diamonds;D: all the hearts -Events A,B,C and D are collectively exhaustive Events B,C and D are also collectively exhaustive Statistics for Ma agers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-10 Tongji University,School of Economics Management

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 4-10 Tongji University, School of Economics & Management Special Events  Mutually exclusive events  Two events cannot occur together  e.g.: -- A: queen of diamonds; B: queen of clubs  Events A and B are mutually exclusive  Collectively exhaustive events  One of the events must occur  The set of events covers the whole sample space  e.g.: -- A: all the aces; B: all the black cards; C: all the diamonds; D: all the hearts  Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive  Events B, C and D are also collectively exhaustive (continued) A B