《供应链系统设计与管理》课程教学课件（讲稿，研究生）Chapter 5 Bullwhip effect & the value of information

&Chapter5:Bullwhipeffectthe value of information主讲车王长琼Objectives:1.Whatisthebullwhipeffect?2.What are thefactors causingthe bullwhipeffect?3.Howto reducethebullwhipeffectoreliminateitsimpact?

Chapter 5: Bullwhip effect & the value of information 主讲 王长琼 Objectives : 1.What is the bullwhip effect ? 2. What are the factors causing the bullwhip effect ? 3.How to reduce the bullwhip effect or eliminate its impact? 1

5.1 IntroductionInformationflow ~materialflow;(inventory)Information type in a SC*Inventorylevels*Orders*Production*Deliverystatus

5.1 Introduction Information flow ~ material flow; (inventory)  Information type in a SC Inventory levels Orders Production Delivery status 2

TheValueof Information*Helps reduce variability in the supply chain.* Helps suppliers make betterforecasts,accounting forpromotions and market changes.* Enables the coordination of manufacturing anddistribution systems and strategies.* Enables retailers to better serve their customers byoffering tools for locating desired items.* Enables retailers to react and adapt to supplyproblems more rapidly* Enables lead time reductions3

 The Value of Information  Helps reduce variability in the supply chain.  Helps suppliers make better forecasts, accounting for promotions and market changes.  Enables the coordination of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies.  Enables retailers to better serve their customers by offering tools for locating desired items.  Enables retailers to react and adapt to supply problems more rapidly.  Enables lead time reductions. 3

5.2Bullwhip Effect1.What is the bullwhip effect ? (p. 133 ~136)*While customer demand for specific productsdoes not vary much* Inventory and back-order levels fluctuateconsiderably across their supply chainP&G'sdisposablediaperscase

5.2 Bullwhip Effect  While customer demand for specific products does not vary much  Inventory and back-order levels fluctuate considerably across their supply chain  P&G’s disposable diapers case  1.What is the bullwhip effect ? (p. 133 ~136) 4

4-Stage Supply ChainExternalDemandRetailerFIGURE5-5:ThesupplychainOrderleadtimeDelivery leadtime?Sales quite flatWholesaler.Distributor orders fluctuateOrderleadtimeDeliveryleadtimemore thanretail salesDistributor?Supplier orders fluctuateOrderleadtimeDeliverylead timeeven moreFactoryProductionleadtime

4-Stage Supply Chain FIGURE 5-5: The supply chain • Sales quite flat • Distributor orders fluctuate more than retail sales • Supplier orders fluctuate even more 5

HigherVariabilityinOrdersPlacedbyRetailertoManufacturerThanActualSalesQuantity6050OrdersPlaced403020ActualSales101TimeLee, H, P. Padmanabhan and S. Wang.(1997), Sloan Management Review

Higher Variability in Orders Placed by Retailer to Manufacturer Than Actual Sales Lee, H, P. Padmanabhan and S. Wang (1997), Sloan Management Review 6

IncreasingVariabilityofOrdersUptheSupplyChainConsumerSalesRetaller Orders to WholesalersOrderQuantityOrderQuantity20201510TimeManufacturerOrderstoSuppllerWholesalerOrderstoManufacturerDrderQuantityOrderQuantity212015151010Lee,H,P.Radmanabhan and S.Wang (1997), SloaniManagement Review

Increasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply Chain Lee, H, P. Padmanabhan and S. Wang (1997), Sloan Management Review 1-7

EffectofOrderVariabilityOrdervariabilityinthesupplychain8070Ordervariability60Factoryis amplified up50Distributorthe supply chain;40WholesalerUpstreamRetailer30echelonsfaceCustomer20highervariability10O1921511K1517WeekFIGURE5-6:The increaseinvariabilitysinthesupply chain

Effect of Order Variability FIGURE 5-6: The increase in variability in the supply chain  Order variability is amplified up the supply chain;  Upstream echelons face higher variability. 8

供应商分销商零售商市场需求上游下游

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供应链的牛鞭效应牛鞭效应(BullwhipEffect）现象：即需求变异放大效应，需求信息的不真实性会沿着供应链逆流而上，产生逐级放大的现象，到达最源头的供应商时，其获得的需求信息和实际消费市场中的顾客需求信息发生了很大的偏差，需求信息严重扭曲。10

牛鞭效应(Bullwhip Effect)现象： 即需求变异放大效应，需求信息的不真实性会 沿着供应链逆流而上，产生逐级放大的现象，到达 最源头的供应商时，其获得的需求信息和实际消费 市场中的顾客需求信息发生了很大的偏差，需求信 息严重扭曲。 10 供应链的牛鞭效应