《技术创新管理》课程教学课件（英文）Technological Change and Information Technologies

Technological Change andInformation TechnologiesSadafBashir,MScTechnischeUniversiteitTUeEindhovenUniversity of TechnologyWhere innovation starts

Technological Change and Information Technologies Sadaf Bashir, MSc

StructureThe macro-economic view:IcT as General PurposeTechnologiesThemicro-economicviewonIcTandproductivitySummaryTechnischeUniversiteitTUEindhovenJUniversityofTechnology30-9-2013PAGE1

Structure • The macro-economic view: ICT as General Purpose Technologies • The micro-economic view on ICT and productivity • Summary 30-9-2013 PAGE 1

CentralquestionsWhyproductivitygrowthisimportant?HowITcontributestowardseconomicgrowth?HowITcontributestowardsbusinessperformance?WhatisITproductivityparadox?TechnischeUniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversity of Technology30-9-2013PAGE2

Central questions • Why productivity growth is important? • How IT contributes towards economic growth? • How IT contributes towards business performance? • What is IT productivity paradox? 30-9-2013 PAGE 2

ProductivityGrowthInthelong run,our living standards depend uponproductivity growth.Ingrowthdependsturn,productivityupon“"innovation"(Brynjolfsson,2010)Innovation isregarded as “Engine of EconomicGrowth"(Schumpeter,1934)Technische UniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversity of TechnologyPAGE330-9-2013

Productivity Growth • In the long run, our living standards depend upon productivity growth • In turn, productivity growth depends upon “innovation” (Brynjolfsson, 2010) • Innovation is regarded as “Engine of Economic Growth” (Schumpeter, 1934) 30-9-2013 PAGE 3

IcTandEconomicGrowth:theMacro-economicpictureTechnische UniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversityofTechnology30-9-2013PAGE4

ICT and Economic Growth: the Macro-economic picture 30-9-2013 PAGE 4

ICTandEconomicGrowthInformation technology is not just traditional capitalinvestment,but“GeneralPurposeTechnology"GPT(BresnahanandTrajtenberg,1995)ITpossessescharacteristicsofGPTTechnischeUniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversity of Technology30-9-2013PAGE5

ICT and Economic Growth • Information technology is not just traditional capital investment, but “General Purpose Technology” – GPT (Bresnahan and Trajtenberg, 1995) • IT possesses characteristics of GPT 30-9-2013 PAGE 5

GeneralPurposeTechnologies(BresnahanandTrajtenberg,1995)GPT'sarecharacterizedby:Pervasiveness:PervasiveuseinalmostallmainsectorsoftheeconomyInnovationComplementarities:Intensity ofR&DindownstreamindustriesincreasesasaconsequenceofinnovationintheGPTTechnological Dynamism:InherentpotentialfortechnicalimprovementsAsaresult,GPTgivesrisetoincreasingreturnstoscaleTechnische UniversiteitTUEindhovenUniversityofTechnologyPAGE630-9-2013

General Purpose Technologies (Bresnahan and Trajtenberg, 1995) • GPT’s are characterized by: • Pervasiveness: Pervasive use in almost all main sectors of the economy • Innovation Complementarities: Intensity of R&D in downstream industries increases as a consequence of innovation in the GPT • Technological Dynamism: Inherent potential for technical improvements • As a result, GPT gives rise to increasing returns to scale 30-9-2013 PAGE 6

GPTs'Pervasiveness:ComparisonwithIT15,000350ElectricPower12,000Railways3009,000250U.S.electricutilitygeneratingcapacity,Railroadtrackinmegawatts2006,000worldwidein thousands1503,000ofkilometers100U18891899190219071912191719205020018461861186618411851185618711876InformationTechnology150Numberofhostcomputersontheinternet(inmilfions)100501994199619982000200219901992Source:"iTdoesn'tmatterbyNicholasG.Carr2003Technische UniversiteitTUEindhoveneUniversityofTechnology30-9-2013PAGE7

GPTs’ Pervasiveness: Comparison with IT 30-9-2013 PAGE 7 Source: “IT doesn’t matter” by Nicholas G. Carr 2003

MassDiffusionofITTable2.ICTindicators,annualpercentchangeorpenetrationrate1980-19851985-19951995-20002000-20052005-2008ANINUAL PERCENT CHANGE(3)(1)(2)(4)(5)Computers/pCs-in-use*1.48.315.015.95.44.79.158.426.513.72.Mobilewirelessconnections*High-speed Internetoccess:115.523.46.617.2Fixed lines-4.46.715.8Wirelineexceptfiber/FTTP---5.43.527.7Satellite,otherfixedwireless--FTTPS6.-113.07.---177.3Mobilewirelessconnections-19852005199520002008PENETRATION RATE(6)(7)(9)(8)(10)(PER100PERSONS)9.331.577.58.62.486.4Computers/pCsinuse.112.638.670.088.49.MobilewirelessconnectionsHigh-speedInternetoccess.10.Fixed lines,per1oohouseholds6.641.965.7-8.211. Mobile wireless connections-Source:InformationandCommunicationTechnologyasaGeneral-PurposeTechnology:EvidencefromUsIndustryData,SusantoBasu,JohnFernald,FederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco,206Technische UniversiteitTUEindhoven-0University of TechnologyPAGE830-9-2013

Mass Diffusion of IT 30-9-2013 PAGE 8

GPTproducingsectorandapplicationsectors:Generatingcomplementaryinnovation-ITcaseGPTGPTproducingsectorSemiconductorsmaxz rg (z,T,w) - C 9(z)WApplicationsectorsHearingAidsCarsRadio,TVsComputersCT,ScannersAS1AS2AS3AS4ASamaxra(w,z,T) - Ca(Ta)KONotation:GPT:General Purpose TechnologySource:Bresnahan,&Trajtenberg's(1995)ASa:application Sectora"Quality"of the GPTz:v:MarketpriceoftheGPTc:Marginal cost of GPTTa:Technological level (or"performance")of Sa (T:vector of Ta's).Grossrentsoftheithsector,i:GPT,ASaTechnischeUniversiteitTUc.EindhoveneR&D costsof theithsector,i:GPT,ASaUniversity of TechnologyPAGE930-9-2013

GPT producing sector and application sectors: Generating complementary innovation – IT case 30-9-2013 PAGE 9 GPT producing sector Application sectors Semiconductors Hearing Aids Radio, TVs Computers . Cars max 𝑊 𝑧 𝑟 𝑔 𝑧, 𝑇, 𝑤) − 𝐶 𝑔 𝑧 max 𝑇𝑎 𝑟 𝑎 𝑤, 𝑧, 𝑇𝑎 ) − 𝐶𝑎 𝑇𝑎 GPT AS1 AS2 AS3 ASa CT, Scanners AS4 Source: Bresnahan, & Trajtenberg's (1995)