上海交通大学：《生产计划与控制 Production Planning and Control》课程教学资源（课件讲稿）chap02 Forecasting 1. Introduction 2. The Time Horizon in Forecasting 3. Classification of Forecasts

上游充通大￥ SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY 1896 1920 1987 2006 Production Planning and Control Professor JIANG Zhibin Dr.GENG Na Department of Industrial Engineering Logistics Management Shanghai Jiao Tong University IAO TONG

1896 1920 1987 2006 Production Planning and Control Professor JIANG Zhibin Dr. GENG Na Department of Industrial Engineering & Logistics Management Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Chapter 1 Production System and Operations Strategy Review 1.Basic Conception of Production Operations Management 2.Production System and its Classification 3.Organization of Production System 4.Operations Management &Operations Strategy 5.The Classical View of Operations Strategy 6.Matching Process and Product Life Cycles 7.Capacity Growth Planning

Chapter 1 Production System and Operations Strategy Review 1. Basic Conception of Production & Operations Management 2. Production System and its Classification 3. Organization of Production System 4. Operations Management &Operations Strategy 5. The Classical View of Operations Strategy 6. Matching Process and Product Life Cycles 7. Capacity Growth Planning

Classification of Production System Classified based on Continuous flow production system production process Discrete production system continuity: ·Make to stock Classified based on ·Produce to order customization: ·Engineer to order Classified based on Manufacturing industry industry: Service industry

Classification of Production System • Continuous flow production system • Discrete production system Classified based on production process continuity: • Make to stock • Produce to order • Engineer to order Classified based on customization: • Manufacturing industry • Service industry Classified based on industry:

The Organization of Production System A production system is usually divided into basic units,e.g.workshop,manufacturing cell, and working team,and all these units can be organized on one of the following three basic principles: ·Process focused ·Product focused Group technology (GT)

The Organization of Production System A production system is usually divided into basic units, e.g. workshop, manufacturing cell, and working team, and all these units can be organized on one of the following three basic principles: • Process focused • Product focused • Group technology (GT)

Operation Management &Operation Strategy Two Traditional Strategic Dimensions ·Lower Cost Product Differentiation Other Strategic Dimensions ·Quality; ·Delivery speed, Delivery reliability; Flexibility;

Operation Management &Operation Strategy Other Strategic Dimensions • Quality; • Delivery speed; • Delivery reliability; • Flexibility; Two Traditional Strategic Dimensions • Lower Cost • Product Differentiation

The Classic View of Operation Strategy The traditional view of manufacturing strategy was put forward by Wickham Skinner of the Harvard Business School. .Classical operations strategy thinking relates to the following issues: 1.Time horizon 2.Focus 3.Evaluation 4.Consistency

The Classic View of Operation Strategy • The traditional view of manufacturing strategy was put forward by Wickham Skinner of the Harvard Business School. • Classical operations strategy thinking relates to the following issues: 1. Time horizon 2. Focus 3. Evaluation 4. Consistency

Matching Process and Product Life Cycle Process structure Ⅱ Ⅲ W Low volume, Multiple Few major High volume,high low products,low products,higher standardization, standardization, volume volume commodity one of a kind products I Commercial Jumbled flow Void (job shop) printer Ⅱ Disconnected line Heavy flow equipment (batch) Ⅲ Connected line Auto assembly flow (assembly line) W Void Continuous flow Sugar refinery To match appropriate industry in its mature phase with the appropriate process

Matching Process and Product Life Cycle I Low volume, low standardization, one of a kind II Multiple products, low volume III Few major products, higher volume IV High volume, high standardization, commodity products I Jumbled flow (job shop) Commercial printer Void II Disconnected line flow (batch) Heavy equipment III Connected line flow (assembly line) Auto assembly IV Continuous flow Void Sugar refinery Process life-cycle stage Process structure To match appropriate industry in its mature phase with the appropriate process

Capacity Growth Planning-a long-term strategy problem Cost to buy c1x 商 Cost to make =K+c2x K Break-even Number of units (x) quantity Fig.1-11 Break-Even Curves

Capacity Growth Planning -a long-term strategy problem Fig. 1-11 Break-Even Curves

Chapter 2 Forecasting Contents 1.Introduction 2.The Time Horizon in Forecasting 3.Classification of Forecasts 4.Evaluating Forecast 5.Notation Conventions 6.Methods for Forecasting Stationary Series 7.Trend-Based Methods 8.Methods for Seasonal Series

Chapter 2 Forecasting Contents 1. Introduction 2. The Time Horizon in Forecasting 3. Classification of Forecasts 4. Evaluating Forecast 5. Notation Conventions 6. Methods for Forecasting Stationary Series 7. Trend-Based Methods 8. Methods for Seasonal Series

2.1.Introduction What is forecasting? Forecasting is the process of predicting the future .What do you want to forecast? √Career Marriage √House price ·Why forecast? ·How forecast?

• What is forecasting?  Forecasting is the process of predicting the future • What do you want to forecast?  Career  Marriage  House price  ······ • Why forecast? • How forecast? 2.1. Introduction