新泽西大学：《社会学讲义》英文版 Testing Theories and Hypotheses

Jati atroouction to sociology . Testing Theories and Hypotheses A. Three criteria of causal Explanations B. Experimental Research C. Field research

I. Testing Theories and Hypotheses A. Three Criteria of Causal Explanations B. Experimental Research C. Field Research

Jati atroouction to sociology Goals of Theory in Sociology Description. Gives us the conceptual tools to"see"social reality more full EXplanation. Most sociological theory attempts to identify causal interrelationships Independent Dependent Variable Variable

Goals of Theory in Sociology • Description. Gives us the conceptual tools to “see” social reality more fully. • Explanation. Most sociological theory attempts to identify causal interrelationships Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Jati atroouction to sociology Criteria of causation 1)Time Order independent variable must be an antecedent variable 2) Correlation a necessary but not sufficient condition 3) Non-spuriousness ruling out alternative explanations

Criteria of Causation 1) Time Order independent variable must be an antecedent variable 2) Correlation a necessary but not sufficient condition 3) Non-spuriousness ruling out alternative explanations

Jati atroouction to sociology Time Order is Not Always Obvious Web Use Tolerance A finding from the 2000 General Social Survey

Time Order is Not Always Obvious Web Use Tolerance A finding from the 2000 General Social Survey

Jati atroouction to sociology Measuring correlations Correlation coefficients vary from.0 to +10 They must be examined for statistical significance Positive and negative correlations can both indicate causal relations But correlation does not always indicate causation

Measuring Correlations • Correlation coefficients vary from –1.0 to +1.0 • They must be examined for statistical significance • Positive and negative correlations can both indicate causal relations • But correlation does not always indicate causation

Jati atroouction to sociology Nonspuriousness: Is the correlation"spurious"? Variable A A Third is correlated is not causally Variable related to Variable B

Nonspuriousness: Is the correlation “spurious”? Variable A Variable B is correlated with A Third Variable is not causally related to

Jati atroouction to sociology What is“ spurous” about a spurious correlation is not the correlation The correlation is real t is the causal interpretation which is spurious

What is “spurious” about a spurious correlation is not the correlation. The correlation is real. It is the causal interpretation which is spurious

Jati atroouction to sociology Some Spurious Correlations Storks and birth rates Storks Rural Areas High Birth Rates

Some Spurious Correlations • Storks and birth rates Storks High Birth Rates Rural Areas X

Jati atroouction to sociology Some Spurious Correlations hand size and shoplifting Large hands Gender X Shoplifting

Some Spurious Correlations Large Hands Shoplifting Gender • hand size and shoplifting X

Jati atroouction to sociology Some spurious Correlations 知· marjuana use and health Marijuana Use Youth X Good health

Some Spurious Correlations Marijuana Use Good health Youth • marijuana use and health X