《综合灾害监测与预警》课程教学课件（PPT讲稿）氣象監測及預報預警（5/6）

Increase in Extreme Events “Average"2.極端天氣预報Year and Trends in the U.S.650Deaths26.000Severe6AtlanticBasin1,300 Tornadoes5,000FloodsS15BinLossesThunderstormsHurricanesUsNaturalCatastropheUpdalIncreasing numberofextremeNaturalCatastrophesintheUSA1980-2012MunichRENumberofeventsweather events at increasingNunbetcostto the nation.2012Total30K184eventsAccurateforecastsforextremeeventshaveextendedto4-82041days19Needto taketheseforecaststo121thenextlevelforeffective3decisionsupport2012gicalevanthnught.fedNier)極端事件增加，炙害大。e2b13Mu1

1 1 Forecast day 2. 極端天氣預報 Increase in Extreme Events “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. 6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 650 Deaths $15B in Losses • Increasing number of extreme weather events at increasing cost to the nation. • Accurate forecasts for extreme events have extended to 4-8 days • Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support 極端事件增加，災害擴大。 1

Improved ForecastingForecast skills for extreme events extended out to days4-8 forFloods> Severe weatherHeat/coldwaves> SnowstormsHurricanes> Fire weather2極端事件预報能力提昇，预期限增长

Improved Forecasting Forecast skills for extreme events extended out to days 4-8 for ➢ Severe weather ➢ Fire weather ➢ Snowstorms Floods Heat/cold waves Hurricanes 極端事件預報能力提昇，預報期限增長。 2

3龍興水龍卷

龍捲風與水龍捲 3

A1987年 Saragosa Texas龍卷風過俊

1987年 Saragosa Texas 龍捲風過後 4

HowFarWe'veComeTornado WarningStatistics 1987-201116.014:02712.0Lead Time (Minutes)4.2510.08.06.0ProbabilyofDetectionC3FalseAlamRatio4.0LeadTime (minutes)4252.0E1250.00.000201120062001199619911986Years5龍卷風警報不断改進5

龍捲風警報不斷改進 5 5

6冰電

冰雹 6

Extreme Events.Increasing Vulnerabilities: Populations increasing along coastlines.WorldPopulation:1950-205010exposing risks to intense storms and coastal99Bilioninundation8Bilion7Billion: Increasing vulnerability to severe weather,6Billion5BillonBliorfloods, fire weatherR-lian. Floods and severe weather highlight theDSEo二.Simportance of quantitative precipitation forecastsYearonrce:U.SCesBanasne2CoetENTER世界人口增加脆弱度升高77

7 • Populations increasing along coastlines, exposing risks to intense storms and coastal inundation • Increasing vulnerability to severe weather, floods, fire weather • Floods and severe weather highlight the importance of quantitative precipitation forecasts Extreme Events, Increasing Vulnerabilities 脆弱度升高 世界人口增加 7

SummaryHistoricAccomplishment:Useof multi-model ensemblesisextendingaccuratepredictionof extremeevents5to8days inadvance Second revolution in numerical weather predictionUncertainty being reduced-predictionsnow connected toa widespectrum of decision makers; NWS is taking prediction to the next levelThe effort is geared toward building a"Weather-Ready Nation":readyresponsive,resilient intheface of increasing number of extremeeventsaroundtheglobeKey to success:partnerships-consistent communication strategy toensure proper/expected response (social science)For Taiwan: this approach could have a major impact on abilities toforecast and ensure a"ready, responsive, resilient"society-Typhoons(withimproved HWRF;global ensemble)-Mei-Yu convective system and related heavy rainfall

•Historic Accomplishment: Use of multi-model ensembles is extending accurate prediction of extreme events 5 to 8 days in advance ◎ Second revolution in numerical weather prediction •Uncertainty being reduced—predictions now connected to a wide spectrum of decision makers; NWS is taking prediction to the next level •The effort is geared toward building a “Weather-Ready Nation”: ready, responsive, resilient in the face of increasing number of extreme events around the globe •Key to success: partnerships—consistent communication strategy to ensure proper/expected response (social science) •For Taiwan: this approach could have a major impact on abilities to forecast and ensure a “ready, responsive, resilient” society ‒Typhoons (with improved HWRF; global ensemble) ‒Mei-Yu convective system and related heavy rainfall Summary 71

3. 定量降水预報TheRoleoftheForecaster24-Hour1-lnchDay1QPFVerificationAnnual ThreatScores0.40Forecastersaddvalue0.350.300.250.200.150.100.05201220102008200620040.00200220001998199619941992YearNAM-GFS-Human(WPc)9定量降水预報不断改進9

9 3. 定量降水預報 定量降水預報不斷改進 9

QPF（定量降水预報）現况FT得分之概念示意圖。F為预定量降水的圜，為觀測到的定量降水凰，C為正碓预報鲍凰CT(1 + B)c前估：PF =T得分： TS=d1+TF+Φ-CCT(1 + B)d偏倚：B=筱符：PA=FBB(1 + T)d10

F C T得分之概念示意圖。F為預報定量降水的範圍， 為觀測到的定量降水範圍，C為正確預報範圍 B T B T B F C PA  = + + = = (1 ) (1 ) F C C T + − =  S  f B = T C T B PF + + = = 1 (1 )  T得分： 偏倚： 前估： 後符： QPF（定量降水預報）現況 10