《综合灾害监测与预警》课程教学课件（PPT讲稿）氣象監測及預報預警（6/6）

五、预警2010091700-24UTC（mm)2010091800-24UTC（mm2010凡那比（FANAPI）204D：09/2025259/179/1809/182010091900-24UTC(mm）2010092000-24UTC(mm)09/1709/1909/16of09/15+20248115125130每送胜风（Ymuo=51.Dm/s）5中皮胜网（Ymx32.7-50.9m/s）6热度脑区（mx17.2-32.6m/s）@热学业费（Vms17.2m/m）A9/199/20R1

1 1 Fanapi (2010) D 9/17 A 9/19 C 9/20 B 9/18 五、預警

Jet Stream 10/30/12 12Z (Blue)Uncertainty in Sandy's trackJetStreamformsapatternlikeaGreekQ(Omega)HlSandy10/30/1212ZH589PossibletracksasSandyinteractedwithdevelopingOmegaBlock-96-85-80-75-105552-100-95060-70..-65.Sandy 路径之不碓定性

Jet Stream 10/30/12 12Z (Blue) Uncertainty in Sandy’s track Sandy 路徑之不確定性 2

3 day Snow Total: Valid Oct 28-Oct 30SnowTotals(Inches)...WESTVIRGINIA...33.0CLAYTON2NNW29.0QUINWOODDAVIS28.028.0FLAT TOP28.0HUTTONSVILLE5WSW26.0CRAIGSVILLE24.0ALEXANDER24.0ALPINELAKE24.0NETTIE24.0TERRAALTA10/29/2012-11/1/2012Total Snowfall3天降零量13-1712--138--42433

3 Snow Totals (Inches) .WEST VIRGINIA. CLAYTON 2 NNW 33.0 QUINWOOD 29.0 DAVIS 28.0 FLAT TOP 28.0 HUTTONSVILLE 5 WSW 28.0 CRAIGSVILLE 26.0 ALEXANDER 24.0 ALPINE LAKE 24.0 NETTIE 24.0 TERRA ALTA 24.0 3 day Snow Total: Valid Oct 28-Oct 30 3天降雪量 3

Ensemblesproved to be aninvaluable30/0000LITcomponent of theforecast process29/1200UTC5-7 days in29/0000TTadvance28/1200UTC28/0000UTC系集预報5-7天Sandy.forecasts327/1200 UTC20121200UTC25OCT预報能力Observed27/0000UTCGFS26/1200UTCGEFSMean26/0000UTCECMWFEnsmnECMWE25/1200ENHC

Ensembles proved to be an invaluable component of the forecast process 5-7 days in advance 系集預報5-7天 預報能力

IncreasingNCEP Global ModelHorizontalResolution Improves HurricaneSandy Track GuidanceModelInitializedat00UTC24October20127-DaySealevelPressure(mb)Forecastvalidat00UTC31October2012HurricanePositionShownEvery24hOperational(T574~27km)Experiment(T1500~13km)Note:Last24h of the highresolutionexperimenttrackbasedon6hmodeloutputHypothesis: Increased horizontal resolution resolves complicated Atlantic blockingpattern, slows simulated hurricane, and allows it to curve toward the East Coast5模式水平解析度增加，改進路径预報°

Operational (T574~ 27km) Experiment (T1500~ 13km) Note: Last 24h of the high resolution experiment track based on 6h model output Hypothesis:Increased horizontal resolution resolves complicated Atlantic blocking pattern, slows simulated hurricane, and allows it to curve toward the East Coast Model Initialized at 00UTC 24 October 2012 7-Day Sea level Pressure (mb) Forecast valid at 00UTC 31 October 2012 Hurricane Position Shown Every 24h Increasing NCEP Global Model Horizontal Resolution Improves Hurricane Sandy Track Guidance 模式水平解析度增加，改進路徑預報。 5

> On 19 Sep 2010, Kaoshiung (2nd largest city) was severely floodeddue to the heavy coastal rainfall (~600 mm) in several hours with 2deaths量位8毫来凡那比風南部淹水情形驻：测站丽量税量+09/190:00-09/2015:00台南聚提高管文4235通水情形霸至09/1922:30凡那比（高雄）泡水（新化一器模高）高辉最高网山946.5永康，左镇麻豆30cm仁德水湾及装漳水（大社鼠山仁武100公分）梓宫，同山蒸岗.强陀70公分）屏東展高高市最高300家1127.5左量：598漳水（赣场100公分湾水（佐蟹ZIN佳冬60公分15鼓山凌一楼亮内境30公分）插拌滤半膜擦#R贝康路中贝大容理健口心新透祝新間米台中藤武陵2原更#家11275m高雄200年雞见919高雄淹水破四纪录公18:35蜜雨特龄东南部南部恒春半东部防雨6

6 ➢ On 19 Sep 2010, Kaoshiung (2nd largest city) was severely flooded due to the heavy coastal rainfall (~600 mm) in several hours with 2 deaths 凡那比颱風（高雄） 6

2010101900-24UTC(mm)2010102000-24UTC.(mm)Kh2010梅姬（MEGI）1251301314020Megi (201039252510/23nB10/22B10/1910/2010/1710/21202610/162010102200-24UTC(mm)10/202010102100-24UTC(mm)10/1810/1515-10/1919HN10/1310/141010135120130140送座（Vmx2-51.0m/s）上度地区（mx32.7-50.9m/）9热度脑区（Vmx17.2-32.0m/8）8热堂线（ym517.2a/s）B410/2110/22

7 Megi (2010) B 10/19 B 10/20 A 10/21 B 10/22

> On 21 Oct 2010, 38 people were killed when stranded on the coastalroad near Suao bymultiple landslides,including one bus that wasflushedoffthecliffintothePacificwithtouristsonboard（梅姬風蘇澳～1000mm天；200多名客受困蘇花公路，游覺車意外未梅姬風蘇花公路

8 ➢ On 21 Oct 2010, 38 people were killed when stranded on the coastal road near Suao by multiple landslides, including one bus that was flushed off the cliff into the Pacific with tourists onboard （梅姬颱風， 蘇澳～1000mm/天；200多名陸客受困蘇花公路，遊覽車意外未尋獲） 梅姬颱風 蘇花公路

2012073000-24UTC（mm）2012073100-24UTC（mm）25.1H00524.582012蘇拉（SAOLA)12012511530Saola(201208/03208/0224ad22:.5822.508/01B12237/307/3107/3020.07/31202012080200-24UTC（mm）2012080100-24UTC(mm)25.1071295151AotS607/28324.51515107/2723:5hto15130135-10R热a（+132-50/8星10X172-32/8）22.5h22.98/18/20

9 Saola (2012) B 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 A A A

以美國氣象局“AWeather-ReadyNation”計画為借镜·滩、回應、復元·透遗興社會科學界對话，以對社會衡擎增加了解·做完预報和發布警报，工作未完·對决策者提供有用餐訓·决策逼程直接参舆10

10 以美國氣象局“A Weather-Ready Nation”計畫為借鏡 • 準備、回應、復元 • 透過與社會科學界對話，以對社會衝擊增加了解 • 做完預報和發布警報，工作未完 • 對決策者提供有用資訊 • 決策過程直接參與