电子科技大学：《数据分析与数据挖掘 Data Analysis and Data Mining》课程教学资源（课件讲稿）Lecture 03 Regression Analysis（Logistic Regression）

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Lecture 3 Regression Analysis Dr.李晓瑜Xiaoyu Li Email:xiaoyuuestc@uestc.edu.cn http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/uestc2014xiaoyu 2019-Spring SunData Group http://www.sundatagroup.org School of Information and Software Engineering,UESTC 1966 Copyright2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Dr.李晓瑜 Xiaoyu Li Email：xiaoyuuestc@uestc.edu.cn http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/uestc2014xiaoyu 2019-Spring Lecture 3 Regression Analysis SunData Group http://www.sundatagroup.org/ School of Information and Software Engineering, UESTC Copyright © 2019 by Xiaoyu Li. 1

sunData Groun Review 1 Simple Linear Regression .2 Multiple Regression 3 Understanding the Regression Output .4 Coefficient of Determination R2 .5 Validating the Regression Model 3 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Review  1 Simple Linear Regression  2 Multiple Regression  3 Understanding the Regression Output  4 Coefficient of Determination R2  5 Validating the Regression Model Copyright © 2019 by Xiaoyu Li. 3

Practice of Regression Choose which independent variables to include in the model, based on common sense and context specific knowledge. Collect data(create dummy variables in necessary). Run regression-the easy part. Analyze the output and make changes in the model-this is where the action is. ·Test the regression result on“out-of-sample”data DATA 4 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

The Post-Regression Checklist 1)Statistics checklist: Calculate the correlation between pairs of x variables -watch for evidence of multicollinearity Check signs of coefficients-do they make sense? Check 95%C.I.(use t-statistics as quick scan)-are coefficients significantly different from zero? R2:overall quality of the regression,but not the only measure 2)Residual checklist: Normality-look at histogram of residuals Heteroscedasticity-plot residuals with each x variable Autocorrelation-if data has a natural order,plot residuals in order and check for a pattern ATA 5 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

The Grand Checklist Linearity: scatter plot,common sense,and knowing your problem, transform including interactions is useful. t-statistics: are the coefficients significantly different from zero? Look at width of confidence intervals .F-test for subsets,equality of coefficients .R2:is it reasonably high in the context? Influential observations,outliers in predictor space, dependent variable space DATA 6 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Copyright © 2019 by Xiaoyu Li. 6 The Grand Checklist  Linearity: scatter plot, common sense, and knowing your problem, transform including interactions is useful.  t-statistics: are the coefficients significantly different from zero? Look at width of confidence intervals  F-test for subsets, equality of coefficients  R2: is it reasonably high in the context? Influential observations, outliers in predictor space, dependent variable space

The Grand Checklist Normality:plot histogram of the residuals. Standardized residuals Heteroscedasticity: plot residuals with each x variables,transform if necessary, Box-Cox transformations. .Autocorrelation:“time series plot” Multicollinearity:compute correlations of the x variables, do signs of coefficients agree with intuition? Principal components Missing Values DATA Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Copyright © 2019 by Xiaoyu Li. 7 The Grand Checklist  Normality: plot histogram of the residuals. Standardized residuals  Heteroscedasticity: plot residuals with each x variables, transform if necessary, Box-Cox transformations.  Autocorrelation: “time series plot”  Multicollinearity: compute correlations of the x variables, do signs of coefficients agree with intuition? Principal components  Missing Values

Logistic Regression Introduction Developed by statistician David Cox in 1958; Extends the ideas of multiple linear regression to the situation where the dependent variable is binary; Further,a regression model where the dependent variable (DV)is categorical; An alternative to Fisher's 1936 classification method; .Independent variablesxx2...x categorical or continuous variables or a mixture of these two types. ATA 9 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Copyright © 2019 by Xiaoyu Li. 9 Logistic Regression Introduction  Developed by statistician David Cox in 1958;  Extends the ideas of multiple linear regression to the situation where the dependent variable is binary;  Further, a regression model where the dependent variable (DV) is categorical;  An alternative to Fisher's 1936 classification method;  Independent variables x1 ,x2…xk , categorical or continuous variables or a mixture of these two types

Example 1:Market Research The data in Table 1 were obtained in a survey conducted by AT T in the US from a national sample of co-operating households. Table 1:Adoption of New Telephone Service High School or below Some College or above No Change in Change in No change in Change in Residence during Residence during Residence during Residence during Last five years Last five years Last five years Last five years Low 153/2160=0.071 226/1137=0.199 61/886=0.069 233/1091=0.214 Income High 147/1363=0.108 139/547=0.254 287/1925=0.149 382/1415=0.270 Income ATA 10 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

Example 1:Market Research Question: How to analysis these data? Linear Regression is OK? Table 1:Adoption of New Telephone Service High School or below Some College or above No Change in Change in No change in Change in Residence during Residence during Residence during Residence during Last five years Last five years Last five years Last five years Low 153/2160=0.071 226/1137=0.199 61/886=0.069 233/1091=0.214 Income High 147/1363=0.108 139/547=0.254 287/1925=0.149 382/1415=0.270 Income ATA 11 Copyright 2019 by Xiaoyu Li

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