《国际期货市场运作》课程教学课件（PPT讲稿）Chapter 9 Fundamental Analysis

Chapter 9 Fundamental Analysis

Chapter 9 Fundamental Analysis

Do you know why traders carry a fundamental analysis? The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence

The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence. Do you know why traders carry a fundamental analysis?

SUPPLY AND DEMAND Anything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices,and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices

SUPPLY AND DEMAND ◼ Anything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices, and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices

Price and Supply Price Q

Price 0 Price and Supply s’ s E E’ Q D

Price and Demand Price Q As price goes up,consumption drops,and vice versa

Price 0 Price and Demand D D’ S E E’ Q As price goes up, consumption drops, and vice versa

MARKET REPORTS The U.S.Department of Agriculture (USDA)provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily,weekly,and monthly price movements

MARKET REPORTS The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily, weekly, and monthly price movements

SEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to- month basis,we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other months price tends to bottom

SEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to￾month basis, we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other months price tends to bottom

Monthly seasonal price tendency for corn CZ04 [10]-Corn (Day) LAST:1994 CHANGE:2'0 HIGH:200'6 L0m:1972 11/12004 MA(CZ4.4=2112MA(CZ4.9)=2522MACZ4.18)=2522 340'0 3300 320'0 310'0 300'0 2900 280'0 2700 260'0 2522 240'0 230'0 220'0 2112 futuresource.com 1994 909192939495969798990001020304 Monthly

Monthly seasonal price tendency for corn

Weekly Corn Prices %C1-[10]-Corn (Day) 892002 LAST:2502 CHANGE:40 HIGH:250'4 L0r:2450 250'0 240'0 2300 200 2100 200'0 190'0 RS1(%C1,14=69.46 60.00 40.00 Jun Aug Sep Nov 02 Mar May Jun Aug Weekl

Weekly Corn Prices

Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal

charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal. Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices