全球价值链培训和研究研讨会（PPT讲稿）Services Trade and Global Value Chains

Services trade and globa Value chains Aaditya Mattoo August 2018 Global Value Chain Training and Research Workshop UIBE, Beijing

Services Trade and Global Value Chains Aaditya Mattoo August 2018 Global Value Chain Training and Research Workshop UIBE, Beijing

Structure of the presentation Broad trends in services trade 1. The pattern of services in GVcs Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. the implications of services in GVCs For productivity For comparative advantage V. National policy VI. International cooperation

Structure of the presentation I. Broad trends in services trade II. The pattern of services in GVCs III. Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. The implications of services in GVCs • For productivity • For comparative advantage V. National policy VI. International cooperation

Goods trade stumbles, but services trade does not fall World Import Volumes of Goods and Services Goods growth rates Services: Growth rates 6ods(1993=100RHS -Services(1993=100, RHS) 93弹弹四弹99p9p四ppp的ppp2p9p3p2p3p3 Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta(2016), work in progress, building on"The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158 Services trade declined less during the crisis and has grown faster after the crisis

I. Goods trade stumbles, but services trade does not fall 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 World Import Volumes of Goods and Services Goods: Growth rates Services: Growth rates Goods (1993=100, RHS) Services (1993=100, RHS) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Services trade declined less during the crisis and has grown faster after the crisis Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta (2016), work in progress, building on “The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158

Drivers of services trade 1: Demographic Change Young and old have different patterns of demand, e. g. USA Average of consumption shares by HH types (in % (UsA,2012) Broad expenditure categories Expenditure on servi ces food domestic service education housing recreation manuf goods health ervIces personal service Two Adults Two 65+ Housing includes interest on mortgage and property tax Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden

Drivers of services trade 1: Demographic Change Young and old have different patterns of demand, e.g. USA 0 10 20 30 40 50 other services manuf. goods housing food Broad expenditure categories 0 5 10 15 20 25 utility transport social security personal service hotel health finance recreation education domestic service catering Expenditure on services Housing includes interest on mortgage and property tax (USA, 2012) Average of consumption shares. by HH types (in %) Two Adults Two 65+ Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden

Young and old have different patterns of demand especially within services: India postal postal recreatIon catering person personal Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden

Young and old have different patterns of demand especially within services: India 0 10 20 30 40 other personal hotel catering education recreation postal transport health utility Urban area 0 10 20 30 40 other personal hotel catering education recreation postal transport health utility Rural area Hi, j, k denotes household of size i, with j children (i.e of age 0-17) and k elderies (i.e. 65+) (India, 2011) Average of consumption shares. by HH types (in %) H200 H202 Source: Work in progress with Erhan Artuc, Zovanga Louis Kone, Maggie Liu and Caglar Ozden

Therefore, demographic change is influencing services trade Shifting dependency ratios. Working Age Population Ratio Japan south Korea and china vS Malaysia and Indonesia 导3 195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050 South korea China by affecting the demand and supply of services

Therefore, demographic change is influencing services trade Shifting dependency ratios… 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan South Korea China Malaysia Indonesia Working Age Population Ratio: Japan, South Korea and China vs. Malaysia and Indonesia by affecting the demand and supply of services

China s rebalancing and demographics are already shifting demand towards services China: Imports of Goods and Services, bill. USD(index China: Share of Services in Total Imports(percent) 2011Q1=100) -Services Imports Goods Imports Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta (2016), work in progress, building on"The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158

China’s rebalancing and demographics are already shifting demand towards services 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 China: Imports of Goods and Services, bill. USD (index 2011Q1=100) Services Imports Goods Imports Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 China: Share of Services in Total Imports (percent) Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Source: Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta (2016), work in progress, building on “The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural?,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7158

Structure of the presentation Broad trends in services trade Il. The pattern of services in GVCs Ill. Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. The implications of services in GVCs a For productivity b) For comparative advantage V. National policy and services in GVC VI. International cooperation and services in GVcs

Structure of the presentation I. Broad trends in services trade II. The pattern of services in GVCs III. Why services value added in exports is increasing IV. The implications of services in GVCs a) For productivity b) For comparative advantage V. National policy and services in GVCs VI. International cooperation and services in GVCs

The pattern of services in GVCs What makes a value chain a gvc? How many"international borders" does a value chain have to cross in order to qualify as a gvc? transactions between national and foreign entities -e. g Fp ers or Should international be based on transactions crossing bord Why do services merit special consideration in a discussion of Gvcs? Should services be examined separately from goods in a discussion of Gvcs? Should services be treated as a single broad category as goods are?

The pattern of services in GVCs • What makes a value chain a GVC? • How many “international borders” does a value chain have to cross in order to qualify as a GVC? • Should “international” be based on transactions crossing borders or transactions between national and foreign entities – e.g. FDI? • Why do services merit special consideration in a discussion of GVCs? • Should services be examined separately from goods in a discussion of GVCs? • Should services be treated as a single broad category as goods are?

The role of services in gvcs Services as links in the global value chain Services as inputs in manufacturing and services In house services: the nature of the firm Bundling goods and services

The role of services in GVCs • Services as links in the global value chain • Services as inputs in manufacturing and services • In house services: The nature of the firm • Bundling goods and services