复旦大学：《中国人口与发展》PPT教学课件_Lecture 7 Demographic Transition and Population Aging

Demographic Transition and Population Aging Shen Ke

Demographic Transition and Population Aging Shen Ke

Outline Demographic transition Consequences of population growth Population age structure

Outline • Demographic transition • Consequences of population growth • Population age structure

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

Demographic Equation The size of a population can change only through the processes of fertility mortality, and migration Demographic Equation Pt+1= Pt+ Bt to t+1- Dt to t+1+It to t+1-Et to t+1 The quantity(Bt to t+1- dt to t+1) natural increase if Bt to t+1< dt to t+1. then the number of deaths exceeds the number of births during the interval t to t+ 1, meaning negative natural increase or natural decrease The quantity (It to t+l-< Et to t+1): net migration If It to t+I Et to t+1, then more persons leave(emigrate from)the area than enter(immigrate into)the area, and the quantity is know as negative net migration

Demographic Equation  The size of a population can change only through the processes of fertility, mortality, and migration.  Demographic Equation  The quantity (Bt to t+1 – Dt to t+1): natural increase  if Bt to t+1 < Dt to t+1, then the number of deaths exceeds the number of births during the interval t to t + 1, meaning negative natural increase, or natural decrease  The quantity (It to t+1 – < Et to t+1): net migration  If It to t+1 < Et to t+1, then more persons leave (emigrate from) the area than enter (immigrate into) the area, and the quantity is known as negative net migration

Natural and total population change in Europe, 2008 (%0) States with increasing population (first 14) states with declining population(all) fatural increase Total increase Natural decline Total decline (descending order) (descending order descending order)(descending order Ireland 10 51 Ireland 14 59 Ital 0.06 Croatia 0.30 albania 6. 34 Switzerland 14.05 Lithuania -0.27 Estonia 0.39 france 4. Norway 13.10 Estonia 0.48 Lithuania -0.51 Norway 3.97 Kosovo 12.80 Moldova -0.82 Russia 0.74 nitedKingdom 3.51 Sp ain 12.03 Romania -1. 45 Romania -1.39 Netherlands 3.03 Slovenia 10.99 Croatia 1. Hungary 141 Spain 2.90 Czech Republic 8.32 Germany.05 Moldova -145 Belgium 2.19 Belgiu 8.22 Russia 2.55 Belarus 184 Switzerland 2.00 Sweden 8.00 Belarus 2.68 Germany 2.04 卫 inland 1.97 Italy 728 3.07 Latvia 4.23 Sweden 1.94 United Kingdom 7.21 Latvia 3.11 Bulgaria 441 Macedonia 1.94 Denmark 7. 19 Bulgaria 4.29 Serbia 4.57 Denmark 1 91 france 5.75 Serbia 4.57 Ukraine 496 Czech Republic 1. 41 Netherlands 495 Ukraine 5.28

Natural and total population change in Europe, 2008 (‰)

Population change in selected European countries 2008-2055, with and without migration (%o 30 With migration 20 □ Without migration 10 0 妇-10 30

Population change in selected European countries 2008–2055, with and without migration (‰)

Demographic Transition Population-The Long View"by Notestein, Frank W. in 1945 Transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system

Demographic Transition • "Population–The Long View” By Notestein, Frank W. in 1945. • Transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system

Five Stages of the Demographic Transition 3 5 Birth rate Death rate Total Population Time

Five Stages of the Demographic Transition

Five Stages of Demographic Transition ° Stage1 High birth rates high death rates, low growth rates High birth rates: Little or no family planning Parents have many children because few survive Many children are needed to work the land High death rates Disease and plague Famine uncertain food supplies, and poor diet; poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage disposal Stage for much of human history pre- industrial societies practically no country today

Five Stages of Demographic Transition • Stage 1 • High birth rates, high death rates, low growth rates • High birth rates: Little or no family planning; Parents have many children because few survive; Many children are needed to work the land. • High death rates: Disease and plague; Famine, uncertain food supplies, and poor diet; Poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage disposal • Stage for much of human history, pre-industrial societies • practically no country today

Five Stages of Demographic Transition 3 Birth rate Death rate Total Population Time

Five Stages of Demographic Transition