复旦大学：《中国人口与发展》PPT教学课件_Lecture 2, 3 China's Fertility Transitions

Chinas fertility Transition Shen Ke

China’s Fertility Transition Shen Ke

China's route to low fertility 8.0 7.0 1971“ Later, Longer and fewer” Policy 6.0 50 4.0 3.0 1959-61 Great Famine 2.0 1978 Economic Re form 1.0 1980One-child"Policy 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

China’s Route to Low Fertility 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year TFR 1971 “Later, Longer and Fewer” Policy 1980 “One-child” Policy 1978 Economic Reform 1959-61 Great Famine

TFR in 1975 by province 1-37 TFI 田田150210 2.10-300 4.005.00 6.41 II500600 区>=600 No data

TFR in 1975 by province 1.37 6.41

Outline 口 Measures of fertility a Fertility Transitions and Explanations n Provincial variations in fertilit

Outline  Measures of fertility  Fertility Transitions and Explanations  Provincial Variations in Fertility

Period measures n Crude Birth Rate: annual number of births per thousand population in a given period [(number of births )(midyear population)]*1000 口 Example:US1940,1960,2000 1940 1960 2000 Live births 2, 554, 996 4250,7884195,113 132,122,000 179,979002822400 CBR (2,554996/132122001036 ? 19.3

Period Measures  Crude Birth Rate: annual number of births per thousand population in a given period.  [(number of births)/(midyear population)]*1000  Example: US 1940, 1960, 2000 1940 1960 2000 Live births 2,554,996 4,250,788 4,195,113 Total pop. 132,122,000 179,979,000 282,224,000 CBR =(2,554,996/132,122,000)*1000 = 19.3 23.6 ????

Annual number of births, China, 1949-2011 2nd baby boom 3rd baby 30 1st baby bool boom 4th baby boom 已20 15

Annual number of births, China, 1949-2011 6 1st baby boom 2nd baby boom 3rd baby boom 4th baby boom ?

Crude birth rate in China, 1949-2008 一出生率 死亡率 —自然增长率 千分比 25 20 园虽過豆昌豆留蜜過画虽昌占昌過国盟器目菌喜 年份

Crude birth rate in China, 1949- 2008

Period measures 口 Crude birth rate a Simple to calculate a Influenced by the gender and age structure a Its denominator includes many people who are not at the risk of childbearing a such as young women(under age 15), postmenopausal women (older than age so)and men Example a 100 persons consisting of 10 women and go men, each woman gives birth to 1 child, CBR=? a 100 persons consisting of 5o women and 5o men, each woman gives birth to 1 child, CBR=?

Period Measures  Crude Birth Rate  Simple to calculate  Influenced by the gender and age structure  Its denominator includes many people who are not at the risk of childbearing ◼ such as young women (under age 15), postmenopausal women (older than age 50) and men  Example  100 persons consisting of 10 women and 90 men, each woman gives birth to 1 child, CBR=?  100 persons consisting of 50 women and 50 men, each woman gives birth to 1 child, CBR=?

Period measures a General Fertility rate(GFR):(# Births /Mid year women aged15-49*1,000 口 Example:!US1940,1960,2000 1940 1960 2000 Live births 2.554.996 4250,7884,195,113 Women pop 36,081,000 41,601,000 71,781,000 15-49 GFR =(255499/360810×X10001022 70.8 a Influenced by age structure of reproductive women

Period Measures  General Fertility rate (GFR): (# Births / Mid￾year women aged15-49) * 1,000  Example: US 1940, 1960, 2000  Influenced by age structure of reproductive women 1940 1960 2000 Live births 2,554,996 4,250,788 4,195,113 Women pop. 15-49 36,081,000 41,601,000 71,781,000 GFR =(2,554,996 / 36,081,000) X 1000 = 70.8 102.2 ?????

Period measure o Period Age-specific Fertility rate(aSFr): nBx/nWx 决1000 anB. number of births to women aged x to x+n in the given period a nWx: number of Women in the same specified age or age group in the given period n Eliminate the impact of gender and age structure of the population

Period Measure  Period Age-specific Fertility rate (ASFR): nBx /nWx * 1,000  nBx : number of Births to Women aged x to x+n in the given period  nWx : number of Women in the same specified age or age group in the given period  Eliminate the impact of gender and age structure of the population