上海交通大学：《系统思考与科学决策 Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making》课程教学资源（讲义）Lecture 5 Leverage Points – what is the real problem?

Leverage Points-what is the real problem? 21 March,2017 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Leverage Points – what is the real problem? 21 March, 2017

Review of Last Class Structure generates behavior Most examples fall into a small set of behavioral modes There are three fundamental modes:exponential growth, goal seeking and oscillation Other modes are generated from combinations of these three 上游充通大滓 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ -  Structure generates behavior  Most examples fall into a small set of behavioral modes  There are three fundamental modes: exponential growth, goal seeking and oscillation  Other modes are generated from combinations of these three Review of Last Class

Modes of Behavior Fundamental Modes Exponential Growth Goal Seeking S-shaped Growth Time- Time Time Oscillation Growth with Overshoot Overshoot and Collapse Time Time Time Interactions of Fundamental Modes 上泽充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Modes of Behavior Fundamental Modes Interactions of Fundamental Modes

Overshoot and collapse:structure and behavior Canying Capacity State of the System Time- Net State of the Consumption/ Increase Erosion of Rate R System Camying Capacity B Fractional B Resource Net Increase Camrying Rate Adequacy Capacity 上滋充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Overshoot and collapse: structure and behavior

Overshoot and Collapse:Examples New England Haddock Catch Net Change in World Nuclear Power Capacity 150 40 30 100 20 50 0 1800 190T 1960 1930 2000 1950 1960 1W0 1980 1990 2000 2.0 Sales ofthe Atari Corporation Silver Prices 40 15 30 COM/S 8 10 o 20 05 10 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 19B4 1986 15 19 13 1g85 上浒充通大睾 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+- O v e r s h o o t and C olla p s e: Examples

Overshoot and Collapse COLLAPSE HO W SOGIE T IES CHOOSE TO FAIL OR SUCCEED JARED DIAMOND Author of GUNS.GERMS.m4 STEEL Wianer of the PULITZER PRIZE 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+- O v ersho o t and C olla p s e

Easter Island (Rapa Nui) Eiibiiiiaie South Pacific Ocean a包台H轴50d Motu Taufere POIKE 点 HATO HI Hanga Roa OROI Easter Island (Rapa Nui) 上游充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - . Easter Island (Rapa Nui)

Easter Island (Rapa Nui) 100 0 3K r10000 80 204 Forest Resource 8000 Population 2K 60 85s 40 I Soll Erosion Charcoal Charcoal 40 60 4000 20 80 2000 0 400 600 1200 1600 2000 Year (AD) Source:The Enigmas of Easter Island.John Flenley and Paul Bahn. 上滋充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Source: The Enigmas of Easter Island. John Flenley and Paul Bahn. . Easter Island (Rapa Nui)

Some Other Dynamics Equilibrium Randomness Damped Oscillations Expanding Oscillations Chaos 上滋充通大滓 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Equilibrium Randomness Damped Oscillations Expanding Oscillations Chaos Some Other Dynamics

Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System