上海交通大学：《系统思考与科学决策 Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making》课程教学资源（讲义）Lecture 4 More causal diagrams and modes of behaviors

More causal diagrams and modes of behaviors 14 March,2017 上游充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

More causal diagrams and modes of behaviors 14 March, 2017

Final Group Assignment Requirements: Refer to course ftp site Logistics: Submit your team members March 21 Final presentation May 2 上酒充通大滓 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Final Group Assignment Requirements: Refer to course ftp site Logistics: • Submit your team members March 21 • Final presentation May 2

Last Class All dynamics are driven by- Accumulation processes Feedback processes Reinforcing loops --loops with all positive or an even number of negative causal links ▣ Balancing loops--loops with an odd number of negative causal links 上游充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Last Class All dynamics are driven by –  Accumulation processes  Feedback processes  Reinforcing loops -- loops with all positive or an even number of negative causal links  Balancing loops -- loops with an odd number of negative causal links

Last Class Experience Dilution Experience Congestion Increased Communication Turno iculties Workforce Overtime Morale +I&I△ more Add People Hopelesness Overlap Hiring Concurrence Out-of- Sequence Work Original Work k Done to Do Scope Growth Work Faster or 由 "Slack Off" Errors Creat More Work Undiscovered Rework to Do Rework Effort Needed Unknown Errors Rework Discovery - in Prior Work+ Errors Build Errors Time Remaining Known Work Remaining Deadline 5 上游充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 5 Productivity Quality Effort Applied Known Work Remaining Time Remaining Effort Needed + - Deadline + Overtime Add People Work Intensity Work Faster or "Slack Off" Work More Workforce Hiring + + + + + + + Original Work to Do Work Done Undiscovered Rework Progressx Rework to Do Rework Discovery + Rework Progress Rework Generation + + + + + Fatigue Experience Congestion & Communication Difficulties + Experience Dilution + Too Big to Manage Burnout + - - - - - + - + + + Haste Makes Waste Morale Hopelessness + + Increased Turnover + Unknown Errors in Prior Work + Errors Build Errors Errors Create More Work Overlap & Concurrence + Haste Creates Out-of￾Sequence Work Scope Growth + - - - + + + ! & !  Last Class

Last Class 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 6 Last Class

Last Class Real World Decisions, Information Actions Feedback Modeling Process Strategy, Mental Decision Rules Models 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Real World Mental Models Information Feedback Decisions, Actions Strategy, Decision Rules Modeling Process Last Class

ast Class SARS Feedback Structure Population Population susceptible infected to SARS with SARS infection recovery rate rate B + R depletion contagion recovery Contacts between infected and uninfected people 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Population susceptible to SARS Population infected with SARS infection rate + Contacts between infected and + uninfected people + recovery rate B + depletion R contagion B SARS Feedback Structure recovery Last Class

Concept Question Which variable is not relevant to the depletion of SARS infections? Infection Rate ·Recovery Rate Contacts between infected and uninfected people Total population http://www.diaochapai.com/survey1670473 上滋充通大滓 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - Concept Question Which variable is not relevant to the depletion of SARS infections? • Infection Rate • Recovery Rate • Contacts between infected and uninfected people • Total population http://www.diaochapai.com/survey1670473

More SD Studies h 上游充通大滓 10 Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+ - 10 More SD Studies

Assignment Work Rate Assignment Completion Calendar Backlog Rate Time B2 中 Time Remaining Corner Cutting Work ◆B4 Pressure Due Effort Devoted Productivity Da My Dog Ate My Homework to Assignments + + Requests for ◆B3 Burnout Extensions B1A Grades Quality Control Midnight Oil Quality of R2 A Work + Too Tired to Think Energy .Level Workweek Delay 11 上游充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

+- 11 Assignment Backlog Assignment Rate Work Completion Rate Effort Devoted to Assignments Time Remaining Due Date Workweek Productivity Quality of Work Grades B2 Corner Cutting B1 Midnight Oil R1 Burnout R2 Too Tired to Think B3 Quality Control - + - - + + + + + - + ++ - - + - Requests for Extensions + + B4 My Dog Ate My Homework Calendar Time Delay Work Pressure Energy Level