上海交通大学：《系统思考与科学决策 Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making》课程教学资源（讲义）Lecture 1 Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making

Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making Instructor:Dr.Huang Dan Feb.21,2017 上海充通大￥ Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Systems Thinking and Scientific Decision-making Instructor: Dr. Huang Dan Feb. 21, 2017

Today's Agenda Introductions Definitions -Initial Discussion Course Objectives >Conceptual Schedule >Class Logistics Questions? 2

2 Today’s Agenda  Introductions  Definitions – Initial Discussion  Course Objectives  Conceptual Schedule  Class Logistics  Questions?

Faster-Better-Cheaper? NA The NASA New Millennium Program: Faster,Better,Cheaper craft were small and most of them tested new technologies.Of the 16 projects undertaken,six had failed as of January 1,2000.The resulting success rate,a paltry 63 percent,was significantly below spacecraft normand well below the expectations for reliability that advocates placed on the initiative. Howard E.Mccurdy,Faster,Better,Cheaper:Low-Cost Innovation in the U.S.Space Program,The John Hopkins University Press,2001. 4

4 Faster-Better-Cheaper? Howard E. Mccurdy, Faster, Better, Cheaper: Low-Cost Innovation in the U.S. Space Program, The John Hopkins University Press, 2001. The NASA New Millennium Program: Faster, Better, Cheaper

Brooks'Law "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.” Sometimes the“help”will delay you further... Frederick P.Brooks,Jr."The Mythical Man-Month".1975.Addison-Wesley

Brooks’ Law "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.” Sometimes the “help” will delay you further… Frederick P. Brooks, Jr. "The Mythical Man-Month". 1975. Addison-Wesley

Policy Resistance

Policy Resistance

Policy Resistance Actions meant to solve a problem cause unanticipated "side effects' > The system responds to our actions in ways that delay,dilute or defeat them Actions make the problem worse than it was to begin with

Policy Resistance  Actions meant to solve a problem cause unanticipated “side effects”  The system responds to our actions in ways that delay, dilute or defeat them  Actions make the problem worse than it was to begin with

Problem:Malaria >Caused by a parasite transmitted via the bites of mosquitoes The parasites multiply in the liver,and then infect red blood cells.Fever,headache,and vomiting usually appear between 10 and 15 days after infection > Can quickly become life-threatening by disrupting the blood supply to vital organs Source:WHO

Problem: Malaria  Caused by a parasite transmitted via the bites of mosquitoes  The parasites multiply in the liver, and then infect red blood cells. Fever, headache, and vomiting usually appear between 10 and 15 days after infection  Can quickly become life-threatening by disrupting the blood supply to vital organs Source: WHO

Problem:Malaria >A child dies of malaria every 30 seconds There were 247 million cases of malaria in 2006,causing nearly one million deaths,mostly among African children. > Malaria takes an economic toll-cutting economic growth rates by as much as 1.3%in countries with high disease rates Source:WHO

Problem: Malaria  A child dies of malaria every 30 seconds  There were 247 million cases of malaria in 2006, causing nearly one million deaths, mostly among African children.  Malaria takes an economic toll — cutting economic growth rates by as much as 1.3% in countries with high disease rates Source: WHO

Policy:DDT ln1955, the World Health Organization began a program to eradicate malaria worldwide,relying largely on DDT

In 1955, began a the World Health program to eradicate Organization malaria worldwide, relying largely on DDT Policy: DDT

“Side Effects” The s spraying also led to the death of a small parasitic chalcid wasp >The wasps inject their larvaeinto the caterpillars which feed on that shed roofs of the villagers >Death of the wasps led to an increase in the caterpillar population > The increase in the caterpillar population led to the deterioration and collapse of hut roofs

“Side Effects”  The spraying also led to the death of a small parasitic chalcid wasp.  The wasps inject their larvaeinto the caterpillars which feed on that shed roofs of the villagers  Death of the wasps led to an increase in the caterpillar population  The increase in the caterpillar population led to the deterioration and collapse of hut roofs