《管理学》课程PPT教学课件（Management, 7th Edition）Chapter 09 PLANNING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

Man Chapter 9 PLANNING TOOLS ROB B INS ACOULTER AND TECHNIQUES ©Prentice Hall,2002 9-1

Chapter 9 PLANNING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-1

Learning Objectives You should learn to: -Describe three techniques for assessing the environment Describe four techniques for allocating resources Tell why budgets are popular planning tools Differentiate Gantt and load charts -Identify the steps in developing a PERT network ©Prentice Hall,.2002 9-2

Learning Objectives You should learn to: – Describe three techniques for assessing the environment – Describe four techniques for allocating resources – Tell why budgets are popular planning tools – Differentiate Gantt and load charts – Identify the steps in developing a PERT network © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-2

Learning Objectives (cont. You should learn to: -Describe the requirements for using linear programming Explain the concept of project planning Tell how managers might use scenarios in planning ©Prentice Hall,.2002 9-3

Learning Objectives (cont.) You should learn to: – Describe the requirements for using linear programming – Explain the concept of project planning – Tell how managers might use scenarios in planning © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-3

Techniques For Assessing The Environment Environmental Scanning the screening of information to anticipate and interpret changes in the environment competitor intellligence -gathering information about one's competitors a variety of sources of information is easily accessible reverse engineeriing-analyze a competitor's product becomes illegal corporate spying when proprietary materials or trade secrets are stolen -fine line between what is legall and ethicall and what is legal but unethical ©Prentice Hall,2002 9-4

Techniques For Assessing The Environment Environmental Scanning – the screening of information to anticipate and interpret changes in the environment – competitor intelligence - gathering information about one’s competitors • a variety of sources of information is easily accessible – reverse engineering - analyze a competitor’s product • becomes illegal corporate spying when proprietary materials or trade secrets are stolen – fine line between what is legal and ethical and what is legal but unethical © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-4

Assessing The Environment (cont. Environmental Scanning (cont.) -globall scanning-screening of information on global forces that might affect an organization that has global interests requires more extensive procedures than those used for scanning the domestic environment ©Prentice Hall,.2002 9-5

Assessing The Environment (cont.) Environmental Scanning (cont.) – global scanning - screening of information on global forces that might affect an organization that has global interests • requires more extensive procedures than those used for scanning the domestic environment © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-5

Assessing The Environment (cont. Forecasting used to predict future events to facilitate decision making Techniques quantittive -applies a set of mathematical rules to a series of past data to predict outcomes qudllittive-uses the judgment and opinions of knowledgeable individuals to predict outcomes collaborative forecasting and replenishment (CFAR) standardized way for businesses to use the Internet to exchange data -information used to calculate a demand forecast for a particular product ©Prentice Hall,2002 9-6

Assessing The Environment (cont.) Forecasting – used to predict future events to facilitate decision making – Techniques • quantitative - applies a set of mathematical rules to a series of past data to predict outcomes • qualitative - uses the judgment and opinions of knowledgeable individuals to predict outcomes • collaborative forecasting and replenishment (CFAR) – standardized way for businesses to use the Internet to exchange data – information used to calculate a demand forecast for a particular product © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-6

Forecasting Techniques Technique Description Application Quantitative Time series analysis Fits a trend line to a mathematical Predicting next quarter's sales on equation and projects into the future the basis of four years of previous by means of this equation sales data Regression models Predicts one variable on the basis of Seeking factors that will predict a known or assumed other variables certain level of sales (for example, price,advertising expenditures) Econometric models Uses a set of regression equations to Predicting change in car sales as a simulate segments of the economy result of changes in tax laws Economic indicators Uses one or more economic Using change in GDP to predict indicators to predict a future state of discretionary income the economy Substitution effect Uses a mathematical formula to Predicting the effect of microwave predict how,when,and under ovens on the sale of conventional what circumstances a new product ovens or technology will replace an existing one Qualitative Jury of opinion Combines and averages the opinions Polling all the company's human of experts resource managers to predict next year's college recruitment needs Salesforce composition Combines estimates from field sales Predicting next year's sales of personnel of customers'expected industrial lasers purchases Customer evaluation Combines estimates from established Surveying major dealers by a car purchases manufacturer to determine types and quantities of products desired ©Prentice Hall,.2002 9-7

Forecasting Techniques © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-7

Assessing The Environment (cont. Forecasting (cont.) -Efectiveness -managers have had mixed success forecasts are most accurate in relatively stable environments forecasts are relatively ineffective in predicting nonseasonal events,unusual occurrences,and the actions of competitors to improve forecasts use simple forecasting methods -compare every forecast with "no change" -use several forecasting methods -shorten the length of forecasts -practice forecasting ©Prentice Hall,2002 9-8

Assessing The Environment (cont.) Forecasting (cont.) – Effectiveness - managers have had mixed success • forecasts are most accurate in relatively stable environments • forecasts are relatively ineffective in predicting nonseasonal events, unusual occurrences, and the actions of competitors • to improve forecasts - use simple forecasting methods – compare every forecast with “no change” – use several forecasting methods – shorten the length of forecasts – practice forecasting © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-8

Assessing The Environment (cont.) Benchmarking the search for the best practices in other organizations that lead to superior performance standard tool of many organizations in quest for performance improvement analyze and then copy the methods used by leaders in various fields important to identify appropriate targets for benchmarking organizations may share benchmarking information ©Prentice Hal,2002 9-9

Assessing The Environment (cont.) Benchmarking – the search for the best practices in other organizations that lead to superior performance – standard tool of many organizations in quest for performance improvement – analyze and then copy the methods used by leaders in various fields – important to identify appropriate targets for benchmarking – organizations may share benchmarking information © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-9

Steps In Benchmarking Form a benchmarking planning team Best Practices Gather internal and external data Prepare and implement action plan Analyze data to identify performance gaps ©Prentice Hall,2002 9-10

Steps In Benchmarking Form a benchmarking planning team Prepare and implement action plan Gather internal and external data Analyze data to identify performance gaps Best Practices © Prentice Hall, 2002 9-10