吉林大学：《金融学》专题教学资源（PPT课件讲稿）Macroeconomic and industry analusis

Macroeconomic And Industry analysis Ding zhaoyong

Macroeconomic And Industry Analysis Ding zhaoyong

The global economy The national economic envirement The global political environment and risk The political and economic issues Exchange rates between host country and other countries affect the international competitiveness of its industries

The Global Economy The national economic envirement The global political environment and risk The political and economic issues Exchange rates between host country and other countries affect the international competitiveness of its industries

The Domestic Macroeconomy Gross domestic product(GDP)and industrial production Unemployment rate and capacity utilization rate Inflation Interest rate Budget deficit--crowding out private borrowing/investing Sentiment----influence consumption, investment and AD

The Domestic Macroeconomy Gross domestic product(GDP) and industrial production Unemployment rate and capacity utilization rate Inflation Interest rate Budget deficit--crowding out private borrowing/investing Sentiment----influence consumption,investment and AD

Demand and Supply shocks Demand shock Is an event that affects the demand for goods and services。 Demand shocks are usually characterized by aggregate output moving in the same direction as interest rates and inflation Supply shock Is an event that influences production capacity and costs Supply shocks are usually characterized by aggregate output moving in the opposite direction as inflation and interest rates

Demand and Supply Shocks Demand shock – Is an event that affects the demand for goods and services. – Demand shocks are usually characterized by aggregate output moving in the same direction as interest rates and inflation. Supply shock – Is an event that influences production capacity and costs. – Supply shocks are usually characterized by aggregate output moving in the opposite direction as inflation and interest rates

Government policy Demand-side policy Focus on part of fiscal policy and monetary olIcy Fiscal policy refers to the governments spending and tax action Monetary policy refers to the manipulation of the money suppl Supply-side policy

Government Policy Demand-side policy – Focus on part of fiscal policy and monetary policy – Fiscal policy refers to the government’s spending and tax action – Monetary policy refers to the manipulation of the money supply Supply-side policy

Business Cycle The business cvcle The recurring pattern of recession and recovery of economy is called the business cycle. The relative performance of different industry groups vary as the economy passes through different stages of business cycle

Business Cycle The business cycle – The recurring pattern of recession and recovery of economy is called the business cycle. – The relative performance of different industry groups vary as the economy passes through different stages of business cycle

Industry analysis just as the economic performance can vary widely across countries, performance also can vary widely across industries Sensitivity to the business cycle Three factors determine the sensitivity of a firms earnings to the business cycle

Industry Analysis Just as the economic performance can vary widely across countries, performance also can vary widely across industries. Sensitivity to the business cycle – Three factors determine the sensitivity of a firm’s earnings to the business cycle

Industry analysis Industry life cycles A start-up stage A consolidation stage a maturity stage A relative decline stage Another life cycle approach: Slow growers, Stalwarts, Fast growers, Cyclicals, urnarounds, Asset plays

Industry Analysis Industry life cycles – A start-up stage – A consolidation stage – A maturity stage – A relative decline stage – Another life cycle approach: Slow growers, Stalwarts, Fast growers, Cyclicals, Turnarounds, Asset plays

Industry analysis Industry structure and performance Threat of entry of entry from new competitors Rivalry between existing competitors Price pressure from substitute products Bargaining power of buyers Bargaining power of suppliers

Industry Analysis Industry structure and performance – Threat of entry of entry from new competitors – Rivalry between existing competitors – Price pressure from substitute products – Bargaining power of buyers – Bargaining power of suppliers

Insider environment analysis Insider management power Circle of firms production Firm’sR& D power

Insider environment analysis Insider management power Circle of firm’s production Firm’s R&D power