清华大学：中国人口分析与预测 The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population

The analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population nstructor:王凯波 Group Members:李文华2009210538 杨丽丹2009210561 宋芹2009210568 杨春晖2009220200 自强不息,厚德载物- E@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 1 The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population Group Members: 李文华 2009210538 杨丽丹 2009210561 宋 芹 2009210568 杨春晖 2009220200 Instructor: 王凯波

OUTLINE PaRT 1: Introduction(Background, Objective, Terminology PART 2: Descriptive Analysis PART 3: Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 4: Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 5: Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 6: Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 7: Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis PART 3: Conclusion 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 2 OUTLINE PART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology ) PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion

INTRODUCTION--Background Before 1950 China had demographic characteristics of a pre- modern society with high dead rates and high fertility rates. this situation produced certain stability in population size or, at least leads to a slow increase After the foundation of The People,s Republic of China in 1949 China entered its demographic transition first dead rates began to fall rapidly and second fertility remained for many years at about an average of six children per woman as a result of this China experienced rapid population growth due to the high number of children born, a sharp decline of baby dead rate 自强不息,厚德载物- E(@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 3 INTRODUCTION--Background ◼ Before 1950 China had demographic characteristics of a pre￾modern society with high dead rates and high fertility rates. This situation produced certain stability in population size or, at least, leads to a slow increase. ◼ After the foundation of The People’s Republic of China in 1949, China entered its demographic transition: first dead rates began to fall rapidly and second, fertility remained for many years at about an average of six children per woman. As a result of this China experienced rapid population growth due to the high number of children born, a sharp decline of baby dead rate

INTRODUCTION-China Population Development China Population Development 1982 1953 清(AD1911) 清(AD1840) 清(AD1800) 明(AD1600) 宋元(AD1100) 隋唐 魏晋 汉 春秋战国 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 12000]ersons 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report ③

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 4 INTRODUCTION-China Population Development China Population Development 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 春秋战国 秦 汉 魏 晋 隋 唐 宋元（AD 1100） 明 （AD 1600） 清 （AD 1800） 清 （AD 1840） 清 （AD 1911） 1953 1977 1982 Population (10k persons)

INTRODUCTION-China Population Today Now China has a population over 1.3 billion(2007), that is nearly 1/5 the world population 中国人口自然密度分布 人口自然密度 (每平方千米人口数) 400人以上 100-400 11人以下 Most of the population are in the east (94%), which are more developed, and enjoying a relatively lower dead rate, and a lower baby dead rate 黑河一腾冲人口地理界线 中国人口地理大区的面积、人口比重 们常海将岛 令地理大区点个国而点含国B人 口线以东地区43 6 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 5 INTRODUCTION-China Population Today Now China has a population over 1.3 billion (2007), that is nearly 1/5 the world population. Most of the population are in the east (94%), which are more developed, and enjoying a relatively lower dead rate, and a lower baby dead rate

INTRODUCTION--Objective Our report would like to apply the statistics method with substantial evidence data got from CHINA POPULATION STATISTICS YEARBOOK (1995 2006), and proceed the research and the analysis on the male-female birth rate, fertility rate and dead rate among different area(city, town, village), and different years, to have a trend analysis and prediction total China population 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 6 Our report would like to apply the statistics method with substantial evidence data got from CHINA POPULATION STATISTICS YEARBOOK (1995- 2006) , and proceed the research and the analysis on the male-female birth rate, fertility rate and dead rate among different area (city, town, village), and different years, to have a trend analysis and prediction on the total China population. INTRODUCTION--Objective

INTRODUCTION--Terminology ciy,Town& Village城市,乡镇,农村: City and Town in China is administratively defined as statutory cities and statutory towns judging from the population, economic, public finance and Infrastructure four aspects. village is referred to the areas other than cities and towns Birth rate( or crude birth rate)出生率 The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. Not to be confused with the growth rate Death rate( or crude death rate)死亡率: The number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year Sex ratio出生人口性别比: The number of males per100 females in a population Fertility Rate生育率: The number of live births per1,000 women ages 15-44 or 15-49 years in a given year . Definition from Administrative Office of the State Council &Population Reference Bureau, USA 自强不息,厚德载物- IE(@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 7 INTRODUCTION--Terminology ◼ City, Town & Village城市，乡镇，农村: City and Town in China is administratively defined as statutory cities and statutory towns judging from the population, economic, public finance and Infrastructure four aspects. Village is referred to the areas other than cities and towns. ◼ Birth Rate (or crude birth rate) 出生率:The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. Not to be confused with the growth rate. ◼ Death Rate (or crude death rate) 死亡率:The number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year. ◼ Sex Ratio出生人口性别比:The number of males per 100 females in a population. ◼ Fertility Rate生育率：The number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 or 15-49 years in a given year. ----Definition from Administrative Office of the State Council &Population Reference Bureau, USA

OUTLINE PART 1: Introduction(Background, Objective, Terminology PART 2: Descriptive Analysis PART 3: Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 4: Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 5: Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 6: Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 7: Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis PART 3: Conclusion 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 8 OUTLINE PART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology ) PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Variables a Population size of China: 1x10 Fertility rate:(生育率)‰(1994-2005) Male-female birth rate: F: 100(1994-2005) Male(female) ratio of a certain age: the percentage of the male number of total male population Death rate:%0 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 9 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Variables ◼ Population size of China: ◼ Fertility rate：(生育率) ‰ （1994-2005） ◼ Male-female birth rate：F:100 （1994-2005） ◼ Male (female) ratio of a certain age: % ◼ the percentage of the male number of total male population. ◼ Death rate: ‰ 4 1 10 

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Data sheet 罪 Project M.回8]205 amale-female rate C2-IC3 C4 C6 Bitrate C-T-V Age Type Male ratio M-death rate Female ratio F-death ratio Population size 0.46 Omale-female population 0,46 084 口2005 0,41 58 0.05 口2004 cIty 0.4 000 56 0.39 37 口2003 0.49 0.42 2002 5 City 051 043 0. 日2001 cIty 口 birth rate2005 7City 0.53 0 2950 0.46 0.08 abirth rate-2004 cIty 0.53 0.47 0.15 abirth rate-2003 cIty 0.56 0.44 0.48 白 birth rate-2002 10City 060 0.18 0.53 0, The data were collected 口 birth rate2001 liCity 0.5 0 0.52 1312City 061 0 0.54 from internet such as 13City 62 0.13 0. CHINA POPULATION 15 14City 0.58 5City 0.75 0.71 0.69 STATISTICS YEARBOOK 79 0.27 17 City 0.38 (19952006) 11122222222 18 City 0.88 19 City 047 0.81 (中国人口统计年鉴)etc. 20City 0.69 0.59 21City 0.69 0.43 0.76 0.73 86 0.42 0.21 25c1 0.73 27City 0.85 84 28 City 0. 自强不息,厚德载物- E(@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③m

--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 10 The data were collected from internet ,such as CHINA POPULATION STATISTICS YEARBOOK (1995-2006) (中国人口统计年鉴) etc. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Data Sheet