《数字化广播》英文版 The Future of Podcasting

The Future of Podcasting Measuring Projecting Behavior

The Future of Podcasting Measuring & Projecting Behavior

Bridge Ratings Research Established 2002 Measures Radio listening behavior All Sized markets Telephone Methodology Quantitative Qualitative Projecting Future Behavior(Audience Attrition Audience Migration Studies RIDGE RATIn

Bridge Ratings & Research • Established 2002 • Measures Radio Listening Behavior • All Sized Markets • Telephone Methodology • Quantitative + Qualitative • Projecting Future Behavior (Audience Attrition, Audience Migration Studies

Podcasting: What We measure Number of downloads Time Spent Listening to Each Download Cumulative Time Spent Listening How Often Consumer downloads Listening Media: PC or MP3 Is Podcast forwarded or shared Qualitative(age, gender, zip code, etc) RIDGE RATIn

Podcasting: What We Measure • Number of Downloads • Time Spent Listening to Each Download • Cumulative Time Spent Listening • How Often Consumer Downloads • Listening Media: PC or MP3 • Is Podcast Forwarded or Shared • Qualitative (age, gender, zip code, etc)

Podcasting: Methodology Imbedded email Questionnaire applet Opt-in telephone Interviews Under development Tracer Cookⅰes RIDGE RATIn

Podcasting: Methodology • Imbedded Email Questionnaire Applet • Opt-in Telephone Interviews • Under development ►Tracer Cookies

State of the podcast Podcast Use(Ever) Projections 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 00 口 Conservative 40.000 口 Moderate 口 Aggressive 30.000 20.000 11.3 10.000 0.7501.01.25 0.000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year

State of the Podcast Podcast Use (Ev er) Projections 0.750 3.5 6.5 14.6 22.7 28.4 44.0 1.0 5.0 9.3 20.9 32.4 40.5 62.8 1.25 6.1 11.3 25.5 39.6 49.5 76.7 0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Users (millions) Conservative Moderate Aggressive

What We Are Projecting a 2005: 5 in 300(1.6%)have ever downloaded a podcast. 5M 20% download weekly(1M) a By 2010: 60 Million/18 million weekly a 2010 Podcasts will positively impact radio by boosting tune-in 母RDGE段科下nC

What We Are Projecting ◼ 2005: 5 in 300 (1.6%) have ever downloaded a Podcast. (5M) ◼ 20% download weekly (1M) ◼ By 2010: 60 Million/18 million weekly ◼ 2010 Podcasts will positively impact radio by boosting tune-in

State of the podcast kly) Projecti 30.000 25.000 20.000 s15000 口 Moderate 口 Aggressive 10.000 0.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

State of the Podcast Podcast Use (Weekly) Projections 0.413 1.58 2.60 5.13 7.95 9.93 15.40 0.550 2.25 3.72 7.32 11.35 14.19 21.99 0.69 2.75 4.54 8.93 13.85 17.31 26.83 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Users (millions) Conservative Moderate Aggressive

The Future relies on Diffusion of Innovation Acceptance (how quickly the technology penetrates society) Innovation Adoption Curve(Society's tolerance for adopting new technologies) Innovators =2.3% of population Brave consumers, pulling the change. Innovators are very important to communicating change in society. Early Adopters =13.5% Respectable people, opinion leaders, try out new ideas, but in a careful way Early Majority = 34% Thoughtful people, careful but accepting change more quickly than average Late Majority = 34% Skeptical people, will use new ideas or products only when the majority are using it. Laggards=16% Traditionalists, caring more for the "old ways", are critical towards new ideas and will only accept if the new idea has become mainstream or even tradition 母RDGE段科下nC

The Future Relies on ◼ Diffusion of Innovation Acceptance (how quickly the technology penetrates society) + ◼ Innovation Adoption Curve (Society’s tolerance for adopting new technologies) Innovators = 2.3% of population Brave consumers, pulling the change. Innovators are very important to communicating change in society. Early Adopters = 13.5% Respectable people, opinion leaders, try out new ideas, but in a careful way. Early Majority = 34% Thoughtful people, careful but accepting change more quickly than average. Late Majority = 34% Skeptical people, will use new ideas or products only when the majority are using it. Laggards = 16% Traditionalists, caring more for the “old ways”, are critical towards new ideas and will only accept if the new idea has become mainstream or even tradition

Projecting podcast Users Podcast Use: Wkly Users vS Ever 4T84 2019 1138 2017 2016 2010 Mass Reached 2007□25 200614 2004R3 0.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 20.000 140000 Users(millions

Projecting Podcast Users Podcast Use: Wkly Users vs. Ever 0.303 1.01 1.49 2.56 3.97 4.97 7.70 10.39 14.03 18.94 27.46 32.78 34.42 36.14 37.95 39.85 41.84 1.0 5.0 9.3 20.9 32.4 40.5 62.8 78.6 82.5 86.6 90.9 93.7 98.3 103.3 108.4 113.8 119.5 0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Users (millions) Ever Weekly Penetration Critical Mass Reached 2007

Projecting Podcast Users 12+ Podcast Use Monthly 600 米12 500 400 320 216 165 90%1o%h 88% 87% 85% 82% 12% 13% 15 Quintile I Quintile Il Quintile Ill QuintileⅣ Quintile V TsL〓%PC %MP3-米一#Dnds

Projecting Podcast Users 12+ Podcast Use Monthly 90 165 216 320 540 90% 88% 87% 85% 82% 10% 12% 13% 15% 18% 3 5 6 8 12 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Quintile I Quintile II Quintile III Quintile IV Quintile V Minutes TSL 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 TSL %PC %MP3 # Dnlds