《EXCEL统计分析》16 预测分析

年份发病率 25 198711.2 1988 9.7 198910.6 15 19928.5 19938.9 199411.2 10 199516.5 199617.5 5 199716.2 199818.4 199921.6 200018.2 198719891991199319951997199 200117.6 年份 200220.3 200321.1

年份 发病率 1987 11.2 1988 9.7 1989 10.6 1990 8.3 1991 11.5 1992 8.5 1993 8.9 1994 11.2 1995 16.5 1996 17.5 1997 16.2 1998 18.4 1999 21.6 2000 18.2 2001 17.6 2002 20.3 2003 21.1

SUMMARY OUTPUT 回归统让 Multiple i o. 838736206 R Square0.703478423 Ad justed I 0. 680669071 标准误差2.484711678 方 回归分析 1190.41190.4130.84179.329E-05 残差 1380.25936.1738 992001 Coefficients标准误差 t stat p- value下限95.0% Intercept-1630.6119296.09-5.5070.0001-2270.274 0.8246428570.148495.55359.3E-050.5038499 RES IDUAL OUTPUT 观测值。预测发病率。残差 DW统计量1.1186875 17.9541666673.24583 28.7788095240.92119 39.6034523810.99655 410.42809524-2.1281 511.25273810.24726 612.07738095-3.5774 712.90202381-4.002 813.72666667-2.5267 914.551309521.94869 1015.375952382.12405 1116.20059524-0.0006 1217.02523811.37476 1317.849880953.75012 418.67452381-0.4745 1519.49916667-1.8992

SUMMARY OUTPUT 回归统计 Multiple R 0.838736206 R Square 0.703478423 Adjusted R Sq0u.a6r8e0669071 标准误差 2.484711678 观测值 15 方差分析 df SS MS F Significance F 回归分析 1 190.41 190.41 30.8417 9.329E-05 残差 13 80.2593 6.1738 总计 14 270.669 Coefficients 标准误差 t Stat P-value 下限 95.0% Intercept -1630.61119 296.09 -5.507 0.0001 -2270.274 年份 0.824642857 0.14849 5.5535 9.3E-05 0.5038499 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 观测值 预测 发病率 残差 DW统计量 1.1186875 1 7.954166667 3.24583 2 8.778809524 0.92119 3 9.603452381 0.99655 4 10.42809524 -2.1281 5 11.2527381 0.24726 6 12.07738095 -3.5774 7 12.90202381 -4.002 8 13.72666667 -2.5267 9 14.55130952 1.94869 10 15.37595238 2.12405 11 16.20059524 -0.0006 12 17.0252381 1.37476 13 17.84988095 3.75012 14 18.67452381 -0.4745 15 19.49916667 -1.8992

5 198619891992199519982 年份 上限95.0% 990.9486141 145435773 10.535434035.403964 0.8485918940.005679 0.9931071579.763393 4.5287893425.642322 0.0611384514.62789 12.797654480.180322 16.016194572.176679 6.38404444420.02882 3.7973945720.03075 4.5115782884.514107 3.54308E-071.891607 1.8899702955.642322 14.0633928717.84761 0.2251728462.029607 3.606834028 80.2592976289.785071.1186875

Significance F 上限 95.0% -990.9486141 1.145435773 10.53543403 5.403964 0.848591894 0.005679 0.993107157 9.763393 4.528789342 5.642322 0.06113845 14.62789 12.79765448 0.180322 16.01619457 2.176679 6.384044444 20.02882 3.797394572 0.03075 4.511578288 4.514107 3.54308E-07 1.891607 1.889970295 5.642322 14.06339287 17.84761 0.225172846 2.029607 3.606834028 80.25929762 89.78507 1.1186875

2001

相关系=∩830 198811.29.7 19899.710.6 y=0.8455X+2.5349 199010.68.3 0.6899 19918.311.5 199211.58.5 19938.58.9 19948.911.2 199511.216.5 199616.517.5 199717.516.2 199816.218.4 0 10 15 199918.421.6 200021.618.2 200118.217.6 17.6 17.4

t Y t-1 Y t 相关系数 ＝ 0.8306 1988 11.2 9.7 1989 9.7 10.6 1990 10.6 8.3 1991 8.3 11.5 1992 11.5 8.5 1993 8.5 8.9 1994 8.9 11.2 1995 11.2 16.5 1996 16.5 17.5 1997 17.5 16.2 1998 16.2 18.4 1999 18.4 21.6 2000 21.6 18.2 2001 18.2 17.6 17.6 17.4

预报发病率 12 0 15 10 10-10 12 ×-预测 16 原数据 18 1988199019921994199619982000 21 18 年份 17.4 17

预报发病率 12 11 11 10 12 10 10 12 16 17 16 18 21 18 17.4 17.2

年份发病率3年移动平均3年标准误4年移动平均4年标准误 1987 11.2 1988 9.7 一 1989 10.6 10.5 1990 8.3 9.5 10.0 199111.5 10.1 1. 10.0 1992 9.4 8.9 9.6 1.0 1.3 1994 11.2 9.5 1.2 10.0 1.1 16.5 12.2 2.7 11.3 2.8 1996 17.5 15.1 3.0 13.5 3. 1997 16.2 16.7 2.9 15.4 3.4 199921.6 18.7 18.4 2.7 2000 18.2 19.4 1.9 18.6 1.8 1986198 2001 17.6 19.1 2.0 19.0 1.8

年份 发病率 3年移动平均 3年标准误 4年移动平均 4年标准误 1987 11.2 1988 9.7 1989 10.6 10.5 1990 8.3 9.5 10.0 1991 11.5 10.1 1.1 10.0 1992 8.5 9.4 1.2 9.7 1993 8.9 9.6 1.0 9.3 1.3 1994 11.2 9.5 1.2 10.0 1.1 1995 16.5 12.2 2.7 11.3 2.8 1996 17.5 15.1 3.0 13.5 3.3 1997 16.2 16.7 2.9 15.4 3.4 1998 18.4 17.4 1.6 17.2 3.4 1999 21.6 18.7 1.8 18.4 2.7 2000 18.2 19.4 1.9 18.6 1.8 2001 17.6 19.1 2.0 19.0 1.8

卜-原数据 3年移动平均 4年移动平均 1992199519982001 年份

年份发病率预报标准误 1987 11.2 9.7 11.2 10.6 0. 1.5 8.5 10.7 1.9 1993 2.3 1994 11.2 9.0 2.0 1995 16.5 8 16.2 1998 18.4 04667 3.8 2.0 2000 18.2 20.5 2.5 2001 17.6 18.9 2.8

年份 发病率 预报 标准误 1987 11.2 1988 9.7 11.2 1989 10.6 10.2 1990 8.3 10.5 1991 11.5 8.9 1.5 1992 8.5 10.7 1.9 1993 8.9 9.2 2.3 1994 11.2 9.0 2.0 1995 16.5 10.5 1.8 1996 17.5 14.7 3.7 1997 16.2 16.7 4.0 1998 18.4 16.3 3.8 1999 21.6 17.8 2.0 2000 18.2 20.5 2.5 2001 17.6 18.9 2.8

年份发病率预报标准误 10.0 1987 10.0 9.7 10.2 1989 10.6 10.1 8.3 0.8 1991 11.5 9.8 1992 10.2 1.5 1993 8.9 9. 1.8 1994 9.6 1.5 16.5 10.0 17.5 11.3 3.9 199716.2 12.5 1998 18.4 13.2 5.6 1999 21.6 14.3 5.1 2000 18.2 15.7 5.6

年份 发病率 预报 标准误 10.0 1987 11.2 10.0 1988 9.7 10.2 1989 10.6 10.1 1990 8.3 10.2 0.8 1991 11.5 9.8 1.2 1992 8.5 10.2 1.5 1993 8.9 9.8 1.8 1994 11.2 9.6 1.5 1995 16.5 10.0 1.4 1996 17.5 11.3 3.9 1997 16.2 12.5 5.3 1998 18.4 13.2 5.6 1999 21.6 14.3 5.1 2000 18.2 15.7 5.6 2001 17.6 16.2 5.4