中国与世界经济（英文版）——China and the Global Economy

HM TREASURY T MO China and the global economy Sir nicholas stern 22 March 2005 2021220

2021/2/20 1 China and the Global Economy Sir Nicholas Stern 22 March 2005

Overview Globalisation: A historical Overview 2. China's role n Globalisation 3. Policy Challenges For China 4. China In The Global Economy 由点 AWRS HM TREASURY

Overview 1. Globalisation: A Historical Overview 2. China’s Role In Globalisation 3. Policy Challenges For China 4. China In The Global Economy

Three Phases of globalisation Percent Millions 40 Immigrants to the United States by decade, milions(right axis) Merchandise exports/world GDP (left axis) 10 Foreign capital stock/developing country GDP (left axis) 20 2 0 1870 1914 1950 1980 2000 Wave 1 Retreat Wave 2 Wave 3 Source: Globalization, Growth and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy, World Bank(2002) 由点 OR HM TREASURY

Three Phases of Globalisation Source: Globalization, Growth and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy; World Bank (2002)

Demography World Population 1820-2015 6 Less Developed Regions 4 More Developed Regions 1000 150016001700 1900195019802000 Source: Maddison and UN Population Division 点 HM TREASURY

Demography

Global gdP growth 1820 1950 X8 Source: Maddison (2001) 由点 OR HM TREASURY 2001X7

1820 1950 x8 2001 x7 Global GDP Growth Source: Maddison (2001)

Something Different About This Wave Of Globalisation? Re-engagement of China, India FSU ICT revolution 由点 AWRS HM TREASURY

Something Different About This Wave Of Globalisation? • Re-engagement of China, India & FSU • ICT revolution

Transport and Communication Costs Figure 1: Transport versus Communication costs 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 ◆0 cean freight-日 Air freight Satellite charges-Tra phone cal Source: Baldwin and Martin (1999) 点 HM TREASURY

Transport and Communication Costs Source: Baldwin and Martin (1999)

Increasing Capital Flows Figure 1. Evolution of International Financial Integration. 1983-2001 2.5 a笤型蓄山 1g86 199 1995 1998 Source: Miles and Feretti. ME2003 点 HM TREASURY

Increasing Capital Flows Source: Miles and Feretti, IMF, 2003

Something Different About This Wave? Re-engagement of China, India FSU ICT revolution Transnational Corporations Increased tradability in services Increasedpublicness' of information Demographics 由点 AWRS HM TREASURY

Something Different About This Wave? • Re-engagement of China, India & FSU • ICT revolution • Transnational Corporations • Increased tradability in services; • Increased ‘publicness’ of information • Demographics

Demography Global Population 1950-2015 6000 3000 2000 为5196019651970197518019851990199520002005201020 Source: UN Populaton OMisiOn I More developed regions Less developed regions 点 HM TREASURY

Demography