上海交通大学：《供应链管理 Supply Chain Management》课程教学资料_Experiments_Sample Reports_Risk Pooling_Risk Pooling Report_杨健

Report of“Risk Pooling”Game 杨健0120329038 1.Experiment Data a.Default Settings Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 5151 96% 4947.5 97% 2 2433 98% 2110 99% 3 3157 99% 2890 100% b-1.Strong Positive Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 3040 98% 2717 99% 2 3719 96% 3546 97% 3 4099 96% 3762 96% b-2.Strong Negative Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 3679.5 98% 3080.5 97% 2 3731 98% 3354.5 98% 3 4040 99% 3580 98% c-1.STD=15 Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 4110 99% 3355.5 100% 2 3162.5 99% 2273.5 99% 3 3636 97% 2971.5 99% c-2.STD=5 Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 4061 99% 4180.5 98% 2 4640.5 97% 4776 97% 3 4348.5 98% 4449 97%

Report of “Risk Pooling” Game 杨健 0120329038 1. Experiment Data a. Default Settings Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 5151 96% 4947.5 97% 2 2433 98% 2110 99% 3 3157 99% 2890 100% b-1. Strong Positive Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 3040 98% 2717 99% 2 3719 96% 3546 97% 3 4099 96% 3762 96% b-2. Strong Negative Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 3679.5 98% 3080.5 97% 2 3731 98% 3354.5 98% 3 4040 99% 3580 98% c-1. STD=15 Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 4110 99% 3355.5 100% 2 3162.5 99% 2273.5 99% 3 3636 97% 2971.5 99% c-2. STD=5 Centralized Decentralized Profit Fill Rate Profit Fill Rate 1 4061 99% 4180.5 98% 2 4640.5 97% 4776 97% 3 4348.5 98% 4449 97%

2.Analysis Centralized Decentralized average profit average fill rate average profit average fill rate Default 3580.3 97.7% 3315.8 98.7% Settings Strong Positive 3916.3 96.7% 3341.7 97.3% Strong 3816.8 98.3% 3338.3 97.7% Negative STD=15 3636.2 98.3% 2866.8 99.3% STD=5 4350 98% 4468.5 97.3% 3.Questions a.Why centralized system can reduce safety stock? The centralized system can make more profit while having lower fill rate.It is easy to find that centralized system is more stable,whatever demands it faced. it can choose closer warehouse to meet the demands.So the centralized system can reduce safety stock for its stability. b.Which kind of system is preferred when customer demand is easy to forecast? Which kind of system is preferred when customer demand varies strongly and is hard to forecast? Answer:According to the sheet of data and data processing,we can find that the decentralized system is preferred when customer demand is easy to forecast. So the centralized system is preferred when customer demand varies strongly and is hard to forecast. c.Using the answers to question b,consider the following question: In reality,what kind of goods can be supplied through a centralized system? What kind of goods can be supplied through a decentralized system?Please place some examples. Answer:Things not usually necessary to buy or change like mobile phones, televisions,fashion things can be supplied through a centralized system Things people always needed like fast moving customer goods,vegetables, water can be supplied through a decentralized system. d.In this experiment,we simulated a system who transformed two warehouses in different states into one central warehouse,pooling each others'risk of high safety stock,which is a risk pooling in geographic dimension. Think of other ways of risk pooling in other dimensions such as time dimension relationship between different companies ect..Place an example. Answer:Take time dimension for example.Coke,Sprite and beverage consumption time mainly in the summer,so they started in the spring of the inventory should keep in a higher position,ensure sufficient supply season;In

2.Analysis Centralized Decentralized average profit average fill rate average profit average fill rate Default Settings 3580.3 97.7% 3315.8 98.7% Strong Positive 3916.3 96.7% 3341.7 97.3% Strong Negative 3816.8 98.3% 3338.3 97.7% STD=15 3636.2 98.3% 2866.8 99.3% STD=5 4350 98% 4468.5 97.3% 3.Questions a. Why centralized system can reduce safety stock? The centralized system can make more profit while having lower fill rate. It is easy to find that centralized system is more stable, whatever demands it faced, it can choose closer warehouse to meet the demands. So the centralized system can reduce safety stock for its stability. b. Which kind of system is preferred when customer demand is easy to forecast? Which kind of system is preferred when customer demand varies strongly and is hard to forecast? Answer: According to the sheet of data and data processing, we can find that the decentralized system is preferred when customer demand is easy to forecast. So the centralized system is preferred when customer demand varies strongly and is hard to forecast. c. Using the answers to question b, consider the following question: In reality, what kind of goods can be supplied through a centralized system? What kind of goods can be supplied through a decentralized system? Please place some examples. Answer: Things not usually necessary to buy or change like mobile phones, televisions, fashion things can be supplied through a centralized system Things people always needed like fast moving customer goods, vegetables, water can be supplied through a decentralized system. d. In this experiment, we simulated a system who transformed two warehouses in different states into one central warehouse, pooling each others’ risk of high safety stock, which is a risk pooling in geographic dimension. Think of other ways of risk pooling in other dimensions such as time dimension relationship between different companies ect.. Place an example. Answer: Take time dimension for example. Coke, Sprite and beverage consumption time mainly in the summer, so they started in the spring of the inventory should keep in a higher position, ensure sufficient supply season; In

winter,the soft drink sales very little,so begins from the autumn should reduce their stock,in order to save money.Relatively,sales of dairy products is stable, time varying haven't changed much,so should keep relatively stable inventory

winter, the soft drink sales very little, so begins from the autumn should reduce their stock, in order to save money. Relatively, sales of dairy products is stable, time varying haven't changed much, so should keep relatively stable inventory