美国麻省理工大学：《航空航天产业 The Aerospace Industry》教学资源（讲义，英文版）Agenda Continued

16.682 The Aerospace Industr April 27 class Special Guest Prof. Daniel hastings

16.682 The Aerospace Industry April 27 Class Special Guest: Prof. Daniel Hastings

Agenda Seminar“ End game Journals due thursday to barbara lechner or electronicall Interviews planned for May 4-6. Sign up today Class feedback Hard copy form bring to interview On-line version-will receive e-mail Special guest: Prof Daniel Hastings

Agenda • Seminar “End Game” – Journals due Thursday to Barbara Lechner or electronically – Interviews planned for May 4-6. Sign up today – Class feedback • Hard copy form bring to interview • On-line version - will receive e-mail. • Special guest: Prof Daniel Hastings

Agenda Continued 3: 15-3: 55"What is the value proposition for human space flight 3:55-4:05- Break 4: 05-4: 40-Discuss remaining articles Will Charc perform better than aircraft? why will immarsat 3 pay off when Iridium hasnt? 4: 40-4: 55- The Lean academy Muddy cards

Agenda Continued • 3:15 - 3:55 “What is the Value proposition for human space flight” • 3:55- 4:05 - Break • 4:05 - 4:40 - Discuss remaining articles – Will Charc perform better than aircraft? – Why will IMMARSAT 3 pay off when Iridium hasn’t? • 4:40-4:55 - The Lean Academy • Muddy cards

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration -I Student replies-Prof hastings assessment Value of science delivered will be superior to robotics -maybe Future of engineering and science -invest in nsF Spinoffs - medical, velcro effect- relies on serendipity. Maybe Bolster space access launch market- not enough lunches to be a dr ver Human experience from those who were there does it inspire John o public? Astronauts are motivational but it is worth the investment? Maintaining human space fligl tht-tautology

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration - I • Student replies - Prof Hastings assessment • Value of science delivered will be superior to robotics - maybe. • Future of engineering and science - invest in NSF • Spinoffs - medical, velcro effect - relies on serendipity. Maybe. • Bolster space access launch market - not enough launches to be a driver. • Human experience from those who were there - does it inspire John Q Public? Astronauts are motivational. But it is worth the investment? • Maintaining human space flight - tautology

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration -II Student replies- Prof hastings assessment Better processes for overall systems integration definitely will do this, but it is not unique. Large defense systems,etc Capability to colonize other planets to avoid following dinosaurs to extinction- would have to sell to Congress. Statistics may not support this when re-election is near Better safety standards for aerospace and other fields-will there be spillover to other fields Scientific gains: geology, fuel - geology is unknown Fuel has some merit in helium3 No radioactive waste. But no working fusion reactor

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration - I I • Student replies - Prof Hastings assessment • Better processes for overall systems integration - definitely will do this, but it is not unique. Large defense systems, etc. • Capability to colonize other planets to avoid following dinosaurs to extinction - would have to sell to Congress. Statistics may not support this when re-election is near. • Better safety standards for aerospace and other fields - will there be spillover to other fields • Scientific gains: geology, fuel - geology is unknown. Fuel has some merit in Helium 3. No radioactive waste. But no working fusion reactor

Value proposition for human space exploration -Ill Student replies-Prof hastings assessment Technology development and research will contribute value- serendipity argument. Wh human space flight? Why not energy initiative? Not so much the end goal, but value delivered along the way Useful by a large subset of the population Possible moon/mars colonization/bases tautological If you dont care about the end goal, why not just fund research? Human spaceflight will generate new ideas that werent even considered before hand Yes, but does it satisfy a value expectations

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration - III • Student replies - Prof Hastings assessment • Technology development and research will contribute value - serendipity argument. Why human space flight? Why not energy initiative? – Not so much the end goal, but value delivered along the way – Useful by a large subset of the population • Possible moon/mars colonization/bases - tautological. • If you don’t care about the end goal, why not just fund research? Human spaceflight will generate new ideas that weren’t even considered before hand. - Yes, but does it satisfy a value expectations

Value Proposition for human Space Exploration -IV Student replies- Prof Hastings assessment Inspirational. Humans have inherent curiosity for space. -It is inspirational. How much is it worth? Has a high entry barrier economically Helium 3 benefits- need cost/benefit analysis Robots dont have curiosity Launcher technology which could be used for other t hi lings-adaressed earlier

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration - I V • Student replies - Prof Hastings assessment • Inspirational. Humans have inherent curiosity for space. - It is inspirational. How much is it worth? Has a high entry barrier economically. • Helium 3 benefits - need cost/benefit analysis • Robots don’t have curiosity • Launcher technology which could be used for other things - addressed earlier

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration -V Student replies-Prof hastings assessment Social aspect having humans involved Achieve what sci-fi has indicated National pride- Pride is important. Countries invest in national pride projects. China is a current example. But does this lead you to human space flight. going to mars could win the argument. How much are you willing to pay? Would human space flight be more compelling than something else? Commercial benefits-??-Trap. It has not yet succeeded with human space flight. What commercial things have come so far from humans in space? The Tang effect Educational stimulation-Yes, but why not invest directly in schools

Value Proposition for Human Space Exploration - V • Student replies - Prof Hastings assessment • Social aspect having humans involved. Achieve what sci-fi has indicated • National pride - Pride is important. Countries invest in national pride projects. China is a current example. But does this lead you to human space flight. Going to Mars could win the argument. How much are you willing to pay? Would human space flight be more compelling than something else? • Commercial benefits - ?? - Trap. It has not yet succeeded with human space flight. What commercial things have come so far from humans in space? The Tang effect. • Educational stimulation - Yes, but why not invest directly in schools

Dialog with Prof. Hastings -I Apollo program value Proposition National pride in the context of cold war Technological presentation seen as surrogate for national power Order $50B spent This country spend a couple trillion dollars over 40 years on nuclear weapons Key value was deterrence against a monolithic enemy Pres. Bush asked for $87B for Iraq Public wanted to support country and troops This not a question of economics but of political

Dialog with Prof. Hastings - I • Apollo Program Value Proposition: – National pride in the context of Cold War – Technological presentation seen as surrogate for national power – Order $50B spent • This country spend a couple trillion dollars over 40 years on nuclear weapons – Key value was deterrence against a monolithic enemy • Pres. Bush asked for $87B for Iraq – Public wanted to support country and troops • This not a question of economics, but of political will

Dialog with Prof. Hastings -II What would drive people and congress to be willing to invest the level of funding needed for human space flight Need something to form a consensus If over 20 years, the Av Week funds would accumulate to $500B But can it be sustained over that period of time Nuclear weapons was the only program sustained over this long period of time Even apollo was not sustained Need an underlying driver

Dialog with Prof. Hastings - I I • What would drive people and Congress to be willing to invest the level of funding needed for human space flight. • Need something to form a consensus. • If over 20 years, the AvWeek funds would accumulate to $500B. – But can it be sustained over that period of time – Nuclear weapons was the only program sustained over this long period of time – Even Apollo was not sustained. – Need an underlying driver