《全球气候系统与气候变化》（英语版） 2 The past climate change-variability and causes

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2 The past climate: variability and causes

The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see Winston churchill

The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill

1. Variability and mechanism 2. Glacial and interglacial cycles 3. Millennial variations 4. Holocene climate changes 5. Seasona -interannual-decadal variations 6. Abrupt/rapid events 7. Reconstruction of the past climate

1. Variability and mechanism 2. Glacial and interglacial cycles 3. Millennial variations 4. Holocene climate changes 5. Seasonal-interannual-decadal variations 6. Abrupt/rapid events 7. Reconstruction of the past climate

Variance(arbitary units 400 kyr 100 kyr 40k y「 Quaternary 6-7 kyr 2-2.5kyr 100-400 years Centennial 9-3 .25-35 years Interdecadal 10-20 years 2-2.5 years QBO, Interannual 1 year 30-60 days Intraseasonal 3-7 days G. Plaut. M. Ghil 1 day andr. vautard (1995) Science, 268:710-713

G. Plaut, M. Ghil and R. Vautard, (1995) Science, 268: 710–713

1. Variability and mechanism 2. Glacial and interglacial cycles 3. Millennial variations 4. Holocene climate changes 5. Seasona -interannual-decadal variations 6. Abrupt/rapid events 7. Reconstruction of the past climate

1. Variability and mechanism 2. Glacial and interglacial cycles 3. Millennial variations 4. Holocene climate changes 5. Seasonal-interannual-decadal variations 6. Abrupt/rapid events 7. Reconstruction of the past climate

The Geologic Time scale Mountain Eras Periods Building Life The prese nt CENOZOIC QUATERNARY Himal ayas Ma MESOZOIC TERTIARY Rocky Mins PALEOZOIC m y CRETACEOUS 1000 9Roubm ONo山 JURASSIC Birds 20 my La st Ou 2000 Tril obits PERMIAN UraLs Appalachians· Re piles CARBONIFEROUS 3000 DEVON IAN Sharks 400 des Northern First life Fossil SILURIAN Appalachia Continents Ide st ORDOVIC AN 4000 a corals CAMBRIAN 570 Trilobites

4 glacial cycles recorded in the Vostok ice core 280 260 240 220 0 200 g 700 A 50g 400 100 150 200 250 350 400 Age( kyr BP) PAGES CHANGE J. R. Petit et al. Nature, 399. 429-36. 1999