北京大学：《气候影响评价》课程教学资源（PPT课件讲稿，英文版）ClimateImpact-chp03-05

Chapter 3 3.4 Crop growth and its modeling 3.4.1 Components of plant growth 3.4.2 Empirical models 3.4.3 Process-based models 3. 4. 4 Case studies 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts I of 53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 1 of 53 3.4 Crop growth and its modeling 3.4.1 Components of plant growth 3.4.2 Empirical models 3.4.3 Process-based models 3.4.4 Case studies

Chapter 3 3. 4. 4 Case studies (1)Impact assessment (2) Sensitivity analysis (3 Calibration (4)Ⅴ alidation 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 2of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 2 of 53 3.4.4 Case studies (1) Impact assessment (2) Sensitivity analysis (3) Calibration (4) Validation

Chapter 3 ) Impact assessment -using empirical model Regionalization of climatic resources Inner-Mongolia Variation of climatic resources Assessment of impacts of climate change on crop yields 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 3of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 3 of 53 • Regionalization of climatic resources Inner-Mongolia • Variation of climatic resources • Assessment of impacts of climate change on crop yields (1) Impact assessment --using empirical model

Chapter 3 Regionalization of climatic resources Inner-Mongolia Yp=E. Q)f(t)of(w).HI f(t (t-3)/19 f(w)=p/(0.0018(25+t)2(100-f) 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 4of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 4 of 53 Yp=E•(Q)•f(t)•f(w)•HI f(t)= 0 (t-3)/19 1 f(w)=p/(0.0018(25+t)2 (100-f) Regionalization of climatic resources --Inner-Mongolia

Chapter 3 Regionalization of climatic resources Inner-Mongolia kt=(YL-Yt/YL threshold: 0.6.0.5.0.3 Kw=(Yt-Yp)t threshold:0.6.0.5.0.3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 5of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 5 of 53 Kt=(YL-Yt)/YL • threshold: 0.6, 0.5, 0.3 Kw=(Yt-Yp)/Yt, • threshold: 0.6, 0.5, 0.3 Regionalization of climatic resources --Inner-Mongolia

Chapter 3 Variation of climatic resources -using empirical model Weather data: 126 stations from 1959-1998 Radiation Temperature Rainfall Humidity wind speed 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 6of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 6 of 53 Weather data： 126 stations from 1959-1998 • Radiation • Temperature • Rainfall • Humidity • wind speed Variation of climatic resources --using empirical model

Weather stations 90 100 110 120 130 100 110 130 图2.1研究区域站点分布图 Crop rotations 表2.1熟制与主要农作物 熟制 农作物 分布地区 年一熟 春小麦或春玉米 东北及内蒙北部 年二熟 冬小麦+夏玉米 华北 冬小麦十一季稻 西南 年三熟 双季稻十冬小麦 长江以南地区

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 7 of 53 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 图 2.1 研究区域站点分布图 表 2.1 熟制与主要农作物 熟制 农作物 分布地区 一年一熟 春小麦或春玉米 东北及内蒙北部 一年二熟 冬小麦＋夏玉米 冬小麦＋一季稻 华北 西南 一年三熟 双季稻＋冬小麦 长江以南地区 Crop rotations Weather stations

Chapter 3 Variation of climatic resources Climatic potential productivity (Yp) Temperature affecting index (kt) Water affecting index(Kw) EOF and cca analysis 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 8of53

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 8 of 53 • Climatic potential productivity(Yp) • Temperature affecting index (Kt) • Water affecting index (Kw) • EOF and CCA analysis Variation of climatic resources

表33夏粮作物距平值各个典型场的时间系数 50年代 60年代 70年代 80年代 温度系数(EOF1) 0.0694 0.0271 -0.0277 -0.0421 水分系数(EOF1) -0.03 -0.108 00303 0088 100 110 EOFI of temperature and water affecting indices for summer crops 0.00 20-0.40 110 1960 1970 1990 100 110 110 1960 1980

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 9 of 53 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 -0.40 0.00 0.40 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 -1 0 1 EOF1 of temperature and water affecting indices for summer crops 表 3.3 夏粮作物距平值各个典型场的时间系数 50 年代 60 年代 70 年代 80 年代 温度系数（EOF1） 0.0694 0.0271 -0.0277 -0.0421 水分系数（EOF1） -0.03 -0.108 0.0303 0.088

表36秋粮作物距平值各个典型场的时间系数 50年代 60年代 70年代 80年代 温度系数(EOF1) 0.036 -0.1207 0.0505 0.0346 水分系数(EOF1) 0.142 0.0084 0.2028 -0.3329 100 EOF I of temperature and water affecting Indices for crops 30000 20-200 1960 1970 100 120 130 50 200 30000 100 130 1990

Chapter 3 2021/2/22 Assessment of Climate/Change Impacts 10 of 53 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 -2.00 0.00 2.00 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50 80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 -2.00 0.00 2.00 表 3.6 秋粮作物距平值各个典型场的时间系数 50 年代 60 年代 70 年代 80 年代 温度系数（EOF1） 0.036 -0.1207 0.0505 0.0346 水分系数（EOF1） 0.142 0.0084 0.2028 -0.3329 EOF1 of temperature and water affecting indices for fall crops