西南交通大学：《管理统计学》（双语版） 第1章 概率论

管理统计学 Statistics In Management 西南交通大学经济管理学院 王建琼刁明碧 2001年6月

管理统计学 Statistics In Management 西南交通大学经济管理学院 王建琼 刁明碧 2001年6月

第一部分预备知识 Primary Knowledge

第一部分 预备知识 Primary Knowledge

第1章概率论 Basic probability Probability distributions

第1章 概率论 Basic Probability Probability Distributions

本章概要 Basic Probability Concepts Sample spaces and Events, Simple Probability, and Joint probability(联合概率) conditional probability(条件概率) Bayesian Theorem(贝叶斯定理) The Probability of a Discrete Random Variable Binomial, Poisson, and Hypergeometric Distributions Covariance(协方差) and its Applications in Finance

本章概要 • Basic Probability Concepts: Sample Spaces and Events, Simple Probability, and Joint Probability(联合概率)。 • Conditional Probability(条件概率) • Bayesian Theorem（贝叶斯定理） • The Probability of a Discrete Random Variable • Binomial, Poisson, and Hypergeometric Distributions • Covariance(协方差) and its Applications in Finance

Sample spaces Collection of alf佯杰b outcomes e.g. All 6 faces of a die: :E:: g All 52 cards of a bridge deck

Sample Spaces Collection of all Possible Outcomes （样本空间） e.g. All 6 faces of a die: e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:

Events(事件) Simple event: Outcome from a Sample space with 1 Characteristic e.g. A Red Card from a deck of cards. Joint or Compound Event: Involves 2 Outcomes Simultaneously(同时发生称为“ Joint”) e.g. An Ace which is also a Red Card from a deck of cards An Ace given that it is a Red Card

Events（事件） • Simple Event: Outcome from a Sample Space with 1 Characteristic e.g. A Red Card from a deck of cards. • Joint or Compound Event: Involves 2 Outcomes Simultaneously（同时发生称为“Joint”） e.g. An Ace which is also a Red Card from a deck of cards. An Ace given that it is a Red Card

Visualizing Events(形象化事件) o Contingency Tables(列联表) ce Not Ace Total Black 24 26 Total 4 52 Tree Diagrams (树状图)

Visualizing Events（形象化事件） •Contingency Tables（列联表） •Tree Diagrams （树状图） Ace Not Ace Total Red 2 24 26 Black 2 24 26 Total 4 48 52

Simple events(简单事件) The Event of a Happy face There are s happy faces in this collection of 18 objects

Simple Events（简单事件） The Event of a Happy Face There are 5 happy faces in this collection of 18 objects

Joint events(联合事件--交) The event of a Happy face AND Light Colored 3 Happy faces which are light in color

Joint Events（联合事件- - -交） The Event of a Happy Face AND Light Colored 3 Happy Faces which are light in color

Compound events(复合事件-并) The event of Happy face oR Light Colored 12 Items, 5 happy faces and 7 other light objects

12 Items, 5 happy faces and 7 other light objects Compound Events（复合事件---并） The Event of Happy Face OR Light Colored