对外经济贸易大学：《营销学原理》精品课程教学资源（授课教案）Session 6 Measuring and forecasting Market Demand

Principles of Marketing 6-1 Session 6 Measuring and forecasting Market Demand Text:Chapter 4,Appendix 1 制计价蜀易大孝 国际商学院市场营销学系

Principles of Marketing Measuring and forecasting Measuring and forecasting Market Demand Market Demand 6 － 1 6 － 1 Session 6 Text: Chapter 4 ，Appendix 1

Outline 6-2 I.Levels Structure of Demand II.Measuring Current Demand, Area Demand,Future Demand III.Sales Forecasting Techniques 国际商学院市场营销学系

Outline I. Levels & Structure of Demand I. Levels & Structure of Demand II. Measuring Current Demand, II. Measuring Current Demand, Area Demand, Future Demand Area Demand, Future Demand III. Sales Forecasting III. Sales Forecasting Techniques Techniques 6－2 6－2

1.Levels of Demand 6-3 Customer Territory Region Industry Co好 World Company Product Category Product line Product item ime Level Short-MediumLong- range rangerange 制卧经价蜀易大考 国际商学院市场营销学系

Industry Company Product Category Product line Product item Short￾range Medium- range Long- range World Country Region Territory Customer Product Level Time Level Geographic Level 6－3 6－3 I. Levels of Demand

Structure of the Market Demand 6-4 Total Market =Actual Market (shared by competitive brands within this category of product) +Potential Market (those who will probably become actual users of this product) +No Market (those who have no knowledge,no desire for this product 征制纤分贺多大学 国际商学院市场营销学系

Total Market =Actual Market (shared by competitive brands within this category of product) +Potential Market (those who will probably become actual users of this product) +No Market (those who have no knowledge, no desire for this product ) 6－4 6－4 Structure of the Market Demand

ll.Measuring Current Demand,Area 6-5 Demand,Future Demand 1.Measuring Current Demand 2.Estimating Market Area Demand 3.Forecasting Future Demand 征制纤价贸多大学 国际商学院市场营销学系

II. Measuring Current Demand, Area II. Measuring Current Demand, Area Demand, Future Demand Demand, Future Demand 1.Measuring Current Demand 2.Estimating Market Area Demand 3.Forecasting Future Demand 6 － 5 6 － 5

1.Measuring Current Demand 6-6 Market Demand in the Specified Market Time Period POSReal Forecast Market -Planned-_ Minimum Expenditure Industry Marketing Expenditures Market Demand in the Specified Market Potential Time Period Prosperity (prosperity) Market Potential Recession (recession) Industry Marketing Expenditures 国际商学院市场营销学系

Market Potential Market Forecast Market Minimum Industry Marketing Expenditures Market Demand in the Specified Time Period Planned Expenditure Market Potential (prosperity) Industry Marketing Expenditures Market Demand in the Specified Time Period Market Potential (recession) Prosperity Recession 6－6 6－6 1. Measuring Current Demand

2.Estimating Market Area Demand Market-Buildup Method Identify all Estimate Forecast potential purchases by demand buyers category Market-Factor Index Method Identify Combine in Forecast correlate weighted demand factors index 制卧经价蜀易大学 国际商学院市场营销学系

Market-Buildup Method Identify all potential buyers Identify all potential buyers Estimate purchases by category Estimate purchases by category Forecast demand Forecast demand Market-Factor Index Method Identify correlate factors Identify correlate factors Combine in weighted index Combine in weighted index Forecast demand Forecast demand 6 － 7 6 － 7 2.Estimating Market Area Demand

6-8 3.Forecasting Future Demand Environmental Forecast Industry Forecast Company Forecast 制计价蜀易大考 国际商学院市场营销学系

Environmental Forecast Environmental Forecast Industry Forecast Industry Forecast Company Forecast Company Forecast 6－8 6－8 3.Forecasting Future Demand

Ill.Sales Forecasting Technique >What People Say >What People Have Done >Time-Series Analysis >Statistical Demand Analysis >12 Leading Indicators 制纤所贸多大孝 国际商学院市场营销学系

III. Sales Forecasting III. Sales Forecasting Techniques Techniques ¾What People Say ¾What People Have Done ¾Time-Series Analysis ¾Statistical Demand Analysis ¾12 Leading Indicators 6 － 9 6 － 9

Sales Forecasting Techniques -I L6-10 What People Say >Survey of Buyers Intentions > Sales Force Composite Expert Opinion 国际商学院市场营销学系

6 －10 6 －10 What People Say ¾ Survey of Buyers Intentions ¾ Sales Force Composite ¾ Expert Opinion Sales Forecasting Techniques - I